[OC] MCU after Avengers: Endgame. Read submissions comment for sources and methodology.

Posted by RajLnk

17 comments
  1. Since *Avengers: Endgame*, Marvel Studios has released ten films. Audience reception, as reflected in IMDb ratings, has been lukewarm[1].

    While ratings are a factor, making money is primary goal of studios. To know how well Marvel Studio is doing on this front, we need three sets of numbers : production budget, marketing budget and box office revenue. 

    While box office revenue is readily accessible[1, 2], production budget figures are often not publicly disclosed and we have to often take Studio’s word for it. Fortunately, Marvel Studios films most of its movies in UK to benefit from UK’s Tax Relief scheme and these numbers are public[3].

    But we still don’t know marketing budget for each movie. Industry convention suggests marketing expenditures typically amount to approximately half of the production budget. Given that *Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3* had a reported marketing budget of $100 million [4], we will estimate marketing budgets as the lesser of 50% of the production budget or $100 million.

    It’s known that box office revenue is generally split approximately 50/50 between heaters and studios. This allows us to estimate Marvel Studios’ profit or loss per film.

    Marvel Studios has incurred an estimated net loss of $136 million across ten films, with five achieving profitability and five incurring losses. The Marvels was biggest loser both financially and critically. In fact there is strong correlation (0.66) between IMDb rating and box office revenue.

    **Notes :**

    (1) Studio-reported figures may not accurately reflect actual financial truth, Hollywood accounting term exists for a reason. For example, Marvel Studios claimed *Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness* had a $200 million production budget, but the actual disclosed budget was almost double that.

    (2) These movies would have earned considerably less without the UK government’s tax rebates, which contribute approximately $60–70 million in recovered costs per film.

    [3] Marvel Studio has only 25% ownership of Spider-man movies and 75% are still held by Sony. And I was not sure how the budget expenditure and box office revenue will be shared, These contracts are tricky and not public.

    **References :**

    [1] [https://www.the-numbers.com/market/](https://www.the-numbers.com/market/)

    [2] [https://www.imdb.com/](https://www.imdb.com/)

    [3] [https://www.forbes.com/sites/carolinereid/2024/05/11/disney-reveals-doctor-strange-2-cost-more-to-make-than-avengers-2](https://www.forbes.com/sites/carolinereid/2024/05/11/disney-reveals-doctor-strange-2-cost-more-to-make-than-avengers-2/#:~:text=Disney%20has%20revealed%20that%20the,flick%20Avengers%3A%20Age%20of%20Ultron.)

    [4] [https://variety.com/2023/film/news/guardians-of-the-galaxy-3-box-office-staying-power-1235605571/](https://variety.com/2023/film/news/guardians-of-the-galaxy-3-box-office-staying-power-1235605571/)

    [5] [https://www.forbes.com/sites/carolinereid/2024/10/15/how-the-marvels-cost-disney-374-million/](https://www.forbes.com/sites/carolinereid/2024/10/15/how-the-marvels-cost-disney-374-million/)

    Tools used : Python

  2. Movie goers don’t like female protagonists, do they?

  3. If the data is accurate, it goes to show that, from a money perspective, it’s clear why sequels are favoured. Out of these films the only sequel that didn’t make profit is The Marvels. 

    It’s also frustrating that Shang Chi was 3rd highest rated, and made back more than double its money, but didn’t quite turn a profit. 

  4. can somebody explain to me where the 800M difference went for Deadpool & Wolverine?
    prod cost 200m
    box office nearly 1.4b
    official profit “only” 369m
    they never ever spend 800m for marketing, so where did the money go?

  5. Why are you using a line chart in the 3rd image? Why switch from bar charts?

  6. This is all based on speculation. We don’t know the books. We never will. All that shit is a secret for bullshit tax reasons.

    Supposedly Apple paid 300m for the F1 movie. Do you think they really spent 300m on that?

  7. So many Italian flags on the first graph – I cannot but approve. Bravo.

  8. I thought Shang-Chi was one of the best since Endgame, I had no idea it got such a lukewarm reception. 

    Also while I didn’t love Black Widow, I wonder if those numbers aren’t a little screwy because that was a weird tail end of Covid streaming thing, right? Like can that be evenly lumped in with the other ones that got regular theatrical releases? I myself remember it was like $30 on Disney plus and I said screw it, I’ll just wait until I can stream it free later on. I imagine that same sentiment multiplied by a couple hundred thousand or a million other people could hurt the “box office” numbers that it didn’t even have real access to.

  9. Odd choice to omit two successful Spider-Man movies. Also Ant-Man, but that was a flop anyway. Just doesn’t paint an accurate picture at all

  10. Would have loved to see correlation between the average rating (Maybe even average out imdb and Letterboxd) and values like profitability and revenue.

  11. I thought Shang-Chi was profitable. Wild. Shows why the MCU wasn’t in a hurry to do a sequel.

  12. The Marvels and BNW did NOT deserve the hate they got. Unlike Quantmania and LAT which were so bad our group nearly walked out.

  13. Simple, make them cheaper. Better scripts, no need for a 300 mil budget. You don’t need constantly CGI worlds. 100 mil. is far enough for a good movie, even with a crazy battle in the climax or something.

  14. Do you have charts for the other half, including endgame

  15. Well come out with something like Eternals and you’ve lost my trust.

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