In 2023, the International Maritime Organization (IMO) adopted a revised strategy that aims to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from international shipping to net-zero by or around 2050. The strategy includes indicative checkpoints targeting a 20% reduction in GHG emissions by 2030 (striving for 30%) and a 70% reduction by 2040 (striving for 80%), both measured against 2008 levels. While these targets align with a well-below 2 °C pathway, defined as 1.7 °C by the ICCT, they fall short of limiting warming to 1.5 °C. Ultimately, it is the cumulative emissions until net-zero is achieved that will determine shipping’s contribution to future global warming.

The IMO has already implemented short-term technical and operational measures to improve the GHG intensity of ships, and is now developing mid-term measures, including a global fuel standard (GFS) and an economic measure such as a GHG levy to close the price gap between fossil and renewable fuels. Together, these measures can result in additional operational efficiency improvements that make it easier to achieve the 2030 and 2040 targets. These mid-term measures are expected to be finalized by April 2025 and could enter into force in 2027.

This report is a gap analysis, detailing the reduction in the global average GHG fuel intensity (GFI) and the operational efficiency improvements that would be necessary for the IMO to achieve its climate goals.