Two months ago, yet another new government took power pledging to end years of turmoil. With its legitimacy now in doubt, could the country be heading towards its eighth elections since 2021? 

After four years of political uncertainty, seven parliamentary elections, and three months of negotiations on the formation of a coalition, Bulgaria’s parliament voted on 16 January to install the center-right GERB party in power for the fourth time since 2009.

GERB and its coalition partners took office claiming they had solutions to end the crisis and stabilize the sluggish economy. Bulgarians rank last in the EU in GDP per capita, 36% below the average. These pledges now rest in the hands of a coalition of pro-Western, pro-Russian, and populist parties that some have labeled a “partisan bacchanalia” or “an extraordinary triarchy.” 

This time, the position of prime minister was awarded, not to GERB leader Boyko Borissov – whose name had become synonymous with the top position from 2009 until the mass protests of 2020 and 2021 – but instead to another GERB veteran, Rosen Zhelyazkov. He committed to a pro-EU government focusing on education, healthcare, and the labor market.

Whatever the coalition’s odds of staying in power long enough to push its policies through might have been, they got much slimmer when the results of a partial recount of the October parliamentary election results were announced earlier this year. That reduced the new government’s majority from small to razor-thin when the nationalist Velichie (Greatness) party was credited with enough votes to put it over the entrance threshold and stay in parliament, which the new far-right party entered after the June 2024 snap elections.

Acting on complaints from Velichie and four other opposition parties, joined by President Rumen Radev, the Constitutional Court annulled the election of 16 candidates. Investigations found evidence of vote-buying and multiple voting in a few districts. Papers from seven electoral wards were missing altogether and could not be included in the recount. Tossing out suspicious votes meant that Velichie just cleared the 4% threshold by a few dozen votes and will now have 10 seats in parliament, cutting the coalition’s majority to just one in the 240-member chamber. 

Even before the recount, the coalition was “very fragile and loaded with inner contradictions,” according to Ognyan Minchev, a political scientist with the Institute for Regional and International Studies. Their inability to forge a common position on the war in Ukraine could be a harbinger of further serious rifts among the ruling parties.

Velichie’s luck could spell disaster for the new government. Its nationalist, euroskeptic views make it even harder to see how lawmakers could pass pro-EU decisions. The parties generally tagged as “pro-Russian” and “pro-Western” – the classic ideological divide in Bulgarian society – are now evenly balanced in the parliament.

Inner contradictions have also been manifest in the domestic policy of the country. The new and the old governing parties have clashed over the budget deficit, and the far-right party Revival has been behind numerous verbal as well as physical outbursts. The party is currently in opposition after winning the third-highest vote total in the October elections. Stirring the pot even more is the undisguised ambition of the country’s most powerful oligarch, Delyan Peevski, to replace Zhelyazkov.

MRF–New Beginning party leader Delyan Peevski addresses a demonstration outside the Bulgarian parliament on 11 November when the new legislature held its opening session. Photo by STR via Reuters Connect.

Despite GERB’s claim of making the necessary ideological compromises with the party’s junior partners at the beginning of the year, the tensions thus still seem to resonate in recent conflicts.

From Fracture to Failure: Where a Nation’s Politics Collapsed

Bulgarian politics went into free fall starting with massive protests in 2020 against the 12-year rule of GERB, the party many associated with deep-rooted corruption in the judiciary, media, and security services.

One of the main concerns of the nation and a major trigger for the protests was the European Union’s apparent blindness to the ruling elite’s misuse of EU funds, as voiced by many critics including former liberal Yes Bulgaria party leader Hristo Ivanov.

As popular anger rose, sparked by incidents such as the use of the state security services to guard properties owned by corruption-tinged politicians and their allies, new political forces began to appear, promising to lift the country out of the quagmire, most prominently We Continue the Change, led by two Harvard graduates.

We Continue the Change entered the Bulgarian parliament in November 2021. The party was given a mandate to form a government, but quickly lost favor with the public.

Its promise to fight corruption and change the system proved to be fruitless, according to Minchev. “It is not enough to just declare yourself as an alternative,” Minchev said. New parties need to win the people’s trust and We Continue the Change seemed to have serious problems with that, he added.

“The inability of these new parties to establish themselves as reliable political alternative has led to the return of the status quo”

Ognyan Minchev

The lack of change resonates in reports by international observers.  The U.S. State Department’s most recent assessment of human rights in the country highlights government corruption and a serious deficit in judicial independence. The report also cites Reporters without Borders’ conclusions that media freedom in the country is “fragile and unstable” and that “the few independent voices in Bulgaria work under constant pressure,” and notes concerns voiced by the European Commission and Transparency International about weak enforcement of laws against official corruption.

No Shift in Sight: The Same Old Politics and Policies

The capture and politicization of institutions of all sorts touches the lives of Bulgarians in many ways. “It is all about the fight for funds and resources,” said Vasil, a senior civil servant of 30 years in the Ministry of Environment and Water. He asked not to use his real name so he could speak freely without possible retribution.

Vasil has noticed how each new minister inserts loyal followers into top positions gradually, out of the public eye. “It would look too suspicious” if a new minister appointed new managers immediately after taking office, he said, noting that the usual practice is to replace the directors of regional bodies within the ministry one by one, over a couple of months.

At his regional environmental agency, he said, “We had this absurd case when the supervisor of the street sweepers rose to the board of directors just because she was a GERB member – as was our manager. In the end she ended up taking over his position when he became a minister himself.”

Vasil called it “madness” to appoint unqualified people to positions crucial for protecting the environment. “A change in the system is definitely needed, but I don’t see it coming any time soon.”

A recent law graduate from the University of Sofia agrees on the need for basic change. After attending the anti-corruption protests following the revelations about vote buying and manipulation of the electoral results, Radina Vangova said the onus lies with the judiciary and Interior Ministry.

“We see cases of corruption and clientelism every day, biased legal proceedings lacking objectivity. It is no secret to anyone that the judicial system is used as a bat in intra-oligarch feuds. Corruption is spread in every layer of Bulgarian society,” she said. 

Ordinary Bulgarians often talk of the courts as “bats” wielded by the power elite to eliminate political rivals or protect allies using willing judges and prosecutors. This notion has its roots in the numerous allegations of the capture of the judicial system by Peevski, often regarded as Bulgaria’s most influential oligarch. Peevski, whose brief stint at the head of the counterintelligence agency sparked protests in 2013, is under sanction by the U.S. and British authorities on suspicion of corruption, bribery, and embezzlement.   

In its 2023 annual report, Bulgaria’s Anti-Corruption Fund speaks of a “new tendency of the public prosecution to increasingly drop cases before they even reach the courts.” The report also contends that “the actual picture of corruption in the higher branches of power remains hidden since criminal proceedings do not resonate with the actual state of corruption in the public sector.”

A Glimmer of Hope

Minchev predicts that the current government will continue to function for a while since there is no alternative in sight. “We have been spinning around in a vicious circle for four years now. And this vicious circle can only be broken by the emergence of a new, more popular political alternative,” he said. The We Continue the Change–Democratic Bulgaria (PP-DB) coalition, the strongest opposition grouping, “is currently not doing well at presenting themselves as strong and reliable,” he added.

Around two-thirds of Bulgarians say they favor a pro-European direction, Minchev said. “People see this is the right path for the country. Though Bulgaria is a rather conservative nation compared to other European countries, many people who wouldn’t identify as liberal take a pro-EU stance.”

Vasil, the Environment Ministry official, also has not lost hope. “I have seen so many things that it’s hard to explain how deep the seizure of the system is,” he said. “It is not only about the influence of politicians – there are businessmen controlling those politicians. But I still cast my vote every time. I want change and as an optimist, I still believe it is possible. I am waiting for something to happen, something good.”

Tina Doncheva is an editorial intern at Transitions. She is pursuing a bachelor’s degree in English and communication studies at Ludwig Maximilian University of Munich.