Between a Hawk and a Buzzard: Kazakhstan’s Choices on Russia

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1. Submission Statement: “Kazakhstan might want to consider adjusting its multivector doctrine to buttress its sovereignty in an era of great uncertainty.” Charles Sullivan explains that Kazakhstan’s foreign policy, known as the multivector doctrine, seeks to maintain positive relations with major powers like Russia and China to safeguard its sovereignty. However, as Russia’s aggressive actions and ambitions for a supranational state pose increasing threats, Kazakhstan may need to revise its strategy. This could involve shifting from a hedging approach to a more balanced stance against Russia while considering greater diversification in arms imports and strengthening democratic institutions.

2. If Russia invaded Kazakhstan it would be Afghanistan 1979 on steroids.

   The distances are enormous, Kazakhstan is not a trivial population or economy and Russia doesn’t have the military to overwhelm, let alone subsequently police, such an environment effectively.

   Any determined and sustained Kazakh response would bleed them dry, while it would do grave harm to Russia’s relationship with China.

   So Kazakhstan can keep hedging, which dilutes Russia’s more realistic option which is attempted coercion.

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