Apr 4, 2025
IndexBox has just published a new report: World – Petroleum Lubricating Oil And Grease – Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights.
The global demand for petroleum lubricating oil and grease is on the rise, leading to an expected upward consumption trend over the next decade. Market performance is predicted to grow at a decelerated pace, with a projected CAGR of +1.5% in volume and +2.1% in value from 2024 to 2035. By the end of 2035, the market volume is estimated to reach 18M tons and the market value is expected to be $61.3B in nominal prices.
Market Forecast
Driven by increasing demand for petroleum lubricating oil and grease worldwide, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next decade. Market performance is forecast to decelerate, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +1.5% for the period from 2024 to 2035, which is projected to bring the market volume to 18M tons by the end of 2035.
In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +2.1% for the period from 2024 to 2035, which is projected to bring the market value to $61.3B (in nominal wholesale prices) by the end of 2035.
ConsumptionWorld’s Consumption of Petroleum Lubricating Oil And Grease
In 2024, the amount of petroleum lubricating oil and grease consumed worldwide stood at 15M tons, flattening at 2023 figures. The total consumption volume increased at an average annual rate of +3.0% from 2013 to 2024; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. Global consumption peaked at 15M tons in 2022; however, from 2023 to 2024, consumption remained at a lower figure.
The size of the market for petroleum lubricating oil and grease worldwide rose modestly to $48.6B in 2024, with an increase of 2.8% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers’ margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). In general, the total consumption indicated a pronounced increase from 2013 to 2024: its value increased at an average annual rate of +3.0% over the last eleven years. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2024 figures, consumption decreased by -2.3% against 2022 indices. Global consumption peaked at $49.7B in 2022; however, from 2023 to 2024, consumption failed to regain momentum.
Consumption By Country
Russia (5M tons) remains the largest petroleum lubricating oil and grease consuming country worldwide, accounting for 33% of total volume. Moreover, petroleum lubricating oil and grease consumption in Russia exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest consumer, China (1.7M tons), threefold. The third position in this ranking was taken by the United States (899K tons), with a 5.9% share.
In Russia, petroleum lubricating oil and grease consumption expanded at an average annual rate of +5.9% over the period from 2013-2024. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: China (+2.7% per year) and the United States (-4.0% per year).
In value terms, Russia ($9.2B), China ($4.9B) and the United States ($4.8B) constituted the countries with the highest levels of market value in 2024, together comprising 39% of the global market. Japan, India, Brazil, Germany, the UK, Indonesia and Nigeria lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 18%.
In terms of the main consuming countries, Nigeria, with a CAGR of +11.9%, saw the highest rates of growth with regard to market size over the period under review, while market for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.
In 2024, the highest levels of petroleum lubricating oil and grease per capita consumption was registered in Russia (35 kg per person), followed by Germany (3.8 kg per person), the UK (3.7 kg per person) and Japan (3.4 kg per person), while the world average per capita consumption of petroleum lubricating oil and grease was estimated at 1.9 kg per person.
In Russia, petroleum lubricating oil and grease per capita consumption increased at an average annual rate of +5.9% over the period from 2013-2024. The remaining consuming countries recorded the following average annual rates of per capita consumption growth: Germany (+3.2% per year) and the UK (+3.7% per year).
ProductionWorld’s Production of Petroleum Lubricating Oil And Grease
In 2024, production of petroleum lubricating oil and grease decreased by -0.2% to 15M tons, falling for the second consecutive year after three years of growth. The total output volume increased at an average annual rate of +2.9% over the period from 2013 to 2024; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2017 with an increase of 15%. Over the period under review, global production reached the peak volume at 15M tons in 2022; however, from 2023 to 2024, production failed to regain momentum.
In value terms, petroleum lubricating oil and grease production rose slightly to $48.3B in 2024 estimated in export price. The total output value increased at an average annual rate of +2.8% from 2013 to 2024; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2017 when the production volume increased by 22% against the previous year. Global production peaked at $50.1B in 2022; however, from 2023 to 2024, production failed to regain momentum.
Production By Country
Russia (5M tons) remains the largest petroleum lubricating oil and grease producing country worldwide, accounting for 33% of total volume. Moreover, petroleum lubricating oil and grease production in Russia exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest producer, China (1.6M tons), threefold. The United States (1M tons) ranked third in terms of total production with a 6.8% share.
In Russia, petroleum lubricating oil and grease production expanded at an average annual rate of +6.1% over the period from 2013-2024. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: China (+3.4% per year) and the United States (-3.6% per year).
ImportsWorld’s Imports of Petroleum Lubricating Oil And Grease
In 2024, global petroleum lubricating oil and grease imports declined slightly to 1.1M tons, with a decrease of -1.9% against 2023 figures. In general, imports continue to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2021 with an increase of 15%. As a result, imports attained the peak of 1.3M tons. From 2022 to 2024, the growth of global imports remained at a lower figure.
In value terms, petroleum lubricating oil and grease imports reduced to $5.3B in 2024. The total import value increased at an average annual rate of +2.4% over the period from 2013 to 2024; the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2021 when imports increased by 23%. Over the period under review, global imports hit record highs at $5.4B in 2022; however, from 2023 to 2024, imports remained at a lower figure.
Imports By Country
The purchases of the six major importers of petroleum lubricating oil and grease, namely China, Italy, India, Germany, Canada and Mexico, represented more than third of total import. The following importers – Vietnam (26K tons), Turkey (26K tons), France (25K tons) and the UK (24K tons) – each finished at a 9.3% share of total imports.
From 2013 to 2024, the biggest increases were recorded for India (with a CAGR of +10.7%), while purchases for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.
In value terms, the largest petroleum lubricating oil and grease importing markets worldwide were China ($564M), Italy ($415M) and Canada ($381M), with a combined 26% share of global imports. Germany, Mexico, India, the UK, Turkey, France and Vietnam lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 22%.
Among the main importing countries, India, with a CAGR of +13.1%, recorded the highest growth rate of the value of imports, over the period under review, while purchases for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.
Import Prices By Country
In 2024, the average import price for petroleum lubricating oil and grease amounted to $4,853 per ton, remaining stable against the previous year. Over the period from 2013 to 2024, it increased at an average annual rate of +2.4%. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2023 when the average import price increased by 13%. Over the period under review, average import prices hit record highs in 2024 and is expected to retain growth in the near future.
There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major importing countries. In 2024, amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was Canada ($7,433 per ton), while India ($2,953 per ton) was amongst the lowest.
From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Canada (+5.8%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.
ExportsWorld’s Exports of Petroleum Lubricating Oil And Grease
For the third consecutive year, the global market recorded decline in shipments abroad of petroleum lubricating oil and grease, which decreased by -10% to 1M tons in 2024. Overall, exports showed a slight descent. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2021 with an increase of 14%. As a result, the exports reached the peak of 1.3M tons. From 2022 to 2024, the growth of the global exports failed to regain momentum.
In value terms, petroleum lubricating oil and grease exports reduced to $4.9B in 2024. The total export value increased at an average annual rate of +1.2% from 2013 to 2024; the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2021 when exports increased by 22%. The global exports peaked at $5.5B in 2023, and then contracted in the following year.
Exports By Country
Germany (201K tons) and the United States (152K tons) represented roughly 35% of total exports in 2024. It was distantly followed by France (91K tons), Japan (77K tons), China (61K tons), Belgium (48K tons) and the Netherlands (47K tons), together creating a 32% share of total exports. The following exporters – Spain (31K tons), Singapore (26K tons) and the UK (26K tons) – each amounted to an 8.3% share of total exports.
From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of shipments, amongst the key exporting countries, was attained by China (with a CAGR of +17.7%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.
In value terms, the largest petroleum lubricating oil and grease supplying countries worldwide were Germany ($1.1B), the United States ($919M) and France ($426M), with a combined 50% share of global exports. Japan, Belgium, the Netherlands, the UK, China, Singapore and Spain lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 28%.
China, with a CAGR of +17.2%, recorded the highest rates of growth with regard to the value of exports, in terms of the main exporting countries over the period under review, while shipments for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.
Export Prices By Country
The average export price for petroleum lubricating oil and grease stood at $4,883 per ton in 2024, stabilizing at the previous year. Over the period from 2013 to 2024, it increased at an average annual rate of +2.8%. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2023 when the average export price increased by 12% against the previous year. As a result, the export price reached the peak level of $4,891 per ton, leveling off in the following year.
There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major exporting countries. In 2024, amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was the UK ($6,435 per ton), while China ($2,679 per ton) was amongst the lowest.
From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Belgium (+6.1%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.