While other world leaders vow to fight Donald Trump’s tariffs, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi is sitting pretty

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1. SS: What do you get when two strongmen become mates?

   For US President Donald Trump and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, the answer so far has been chemistry, an aligning of ideas and a shared vision for “MEGA prosperity” that will make both their countries great again.

   But when those political strongmen are nationalist — as they so often are — and prioritise domestic interests above all else, in a global economy, at some point, something’s gotta give.

   A seemingly equal partnership will eventually tilt in favour of one party, who will emerge with more power — perhaps military, economic or, in this case, negotiating.

   And the other might be left wondering, like a kid in the playground whose friend has just turned on them: “How could they do that to me?”

   That is certainly one way of looking at Mr Trump’s doling out of 26 per cent tariffs to India as part of his “Liberation Day” sweep.

   During his announcement, he again described Mr Modi as a “great friend” before adding he told the Indian PM: “You’re a friend of mine, but you’re not treating us right. They charge us 52 per cent, and we have charged them almost nothing for years and years.”

   That was despite days of trade negotiations between the two countries last week, working towards a bilateral trade agreement slated to start around September, which will likely see India shave huge numbers off the high tariffs it currently applies to US imports in exchange for concessions.

   Some had hoped that proposal for the bilateral trade agreement, plus the goodwill from the longstanding friendship between the two countries’ leaders, may have won India a complete exemption from this week’s tariffs.

   Now that it hasn’t, it has some asking the question — is the bromance over?

   Unsurprisingly, opposition politicians in India have cried foul that Mr Modi has bowed down to Mr Trump.

   But others say this is exactly what Mr Modi knew would happen — and he’s got a plan that, ultimately, will wind up benefiting India.

2. While Indian exports have become expensive but so have other exports to US, as long as Indian exports are cheaper than others it’s a net gain. Domestic US products can’t compete with Indian products at these prices even with tariffs.

   Maybe they are working on a deal to lower the tariffs. Trump needs political win, so long as Modi says Trump made him sign a deal that benefits US, he will get what he wants.

3. India knows very well what to do. Why to fight with USA? They are already discussing bilateral trade agreement. India is in much better position to use Trump tariffs as a befits for there economy rather than escalating Trade war. Nevertheless, india tariffs are really high and Trump will definitely make some structural changes which will ultimately help india

4. Concept seems so obvious. “We’re going to have matching tariffs. What would you like them to be?” That’s probably too simplistic, but basically correct.

5. USA and India said they want to negotiate a bilateral trade deal within this year. It would be stupid of Modi if he speaks out for no reason, certainly not publicly.

   Talks are coming along well, afaik US asked India to open up its agriculture and dairy, India flagged certain issues arounf it. For example, Indian mangos are good quality yet even if they go through phytosanitary certification they won’t get market access in USA as they might harm local crops, this will apply to a lot of Indian fruits, vegetables etc. So how can India allow full access to america in agriculture but they won’t do the same? Its about reciprocity after all.

6. India knows very well that his position is strategic for the USA in the war, commercial or otherwise, against China. For this reason, the USA closed one eye when India was exporting Russian oil circumventing the sanctions, with a great profit. India has been the great winner of the war between Russia and Ukraine and it now feels safe for the immediate future as it’s the only option for the USA on the Asian continent.

7. I’m as anti Donald trump as an otherwise republican can be. But if countries that are tariffing the US are planning to fight US tariffs which are actually reciprocal, I’m not sure I care. He definitely went crazy and overreached, but there are plenty of tariff abusers out there who are sure upset this morning.

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