>Labour’s voter retention is weak. Fewer than two-thirds of 2024 Labour voters say they would back the party in a Senedd election, with Plaid Cymru (16%) picking up most of the defectors. Just 67% of those who backed Labour in 2021 say they would do so again; only the Conservatives are retaining fewer of their 2021 voters.
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>The biggest story is the rise of Reform UK. The party now polls 24%, a 22-point jump from the Brexit Party’s performance in 2019. That puts them level with Plaid and firmly ahead of the Conservatives, who collapse to just 15%, amounting to an 11 point decline.
>This would make Reform the joint-second largest party in Wales. Their support is concentrated in older, non-graduate voters. The party’s strongest foothold is in South Wales, where they placed second in 13Westminster constituencies in July. They are pulling in 22% of 2024 Conservative voters, but also 9% of Labour’s. Crucially, Reform are winning twice as many Leave voters as the Conservatives, while Labour and Plaid are splitting the Remain vote while retaining a modest appeal to Leavers (17% and 18%, respectively). Effectively, Reform is eating the 2019 Conservative Party’s lunch.
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>Plaid Cymru sit at 24%, with excellent voter retention (96%) and strong support in North, Mid, and West Wales. Their challenge is expanding beyond their base. While they outperform Labour among younger voters and those who voted Remain, they trail Labour in the south and Reform among older, non-university-educated voters.
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>The cost of living (60%) and the NHS (58%) dominate the public agenda. Immigration (34%) remains a key concern, but its salience is largely confined to the political right.
Honestly expected Labour to be lower. This suggests their vote is holding up better in Wales than the rest of the UK
Quarter of the electorate buy Reform’s bullshit, good time to be a scammer in Wales with people this thick wandering around.
I honestly think that much of the Labour vote will not be a “Labour vote” but an anti-reform vote. Although with the new PR system or semi-PR system? Smaller parties could benefit, I think a lot of people will vote Labour as Anti-Reform.
I think this might be because people will think as a first past the post system is either All or nothing.
Will be interesting to see, as I think thay unfortunately Reform can actually come first. Although we have seen in the past in other countries that there are mobilisations against these far right parties which are not caught by polls.
Reform again? Really? It takes a particularly thick cunt of a person to support Farage and his soundbite thirsty antics..
Why are Welsh people voting for an English Nationalist party? Are you stupid?
Oh for fuck sake, reform are increasing?
Wake up Wales. Reform? Seriously.
Who the cluster f**k is voting Deform?
Makes me want to give up hope on humanity. From bad to worse, then worse again. Ffs mun!
A red rosette on a donkey standing for Labour and the people of Wales would still vote for it.
Everything they have done on national basis has failed.
The biggest group, as usual, will be those who don’t vote at all.
The Senedd is a joke of an institution that didn’t have a democratic mandate to be created in the first place and has failed to engage the electorate as a whole in 25 years of its existence. Meanwhile it’s used by a militant minority to push through harmful ethno-nationalist agendas that make Wales worse for the vast majority of her people.
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More detail here: https://www.survation.com/senedd-polling-points-to-a-three-way-split/
>Labour’s voter retention is weak. Fewer than two-thirds of 2024 Labour voters say they would back the party in a Senedd election, with Plaid Cymru (16%) picking up most of the defectors. Just 67% of those who backed Labour in 2021 say they would do so again; only the Conservatives are retaining fewer of their 2021 voters.
…
>The biggest story is the rise of Reform UK. The party now polls 24%, a 22-point jump from the Brexit Party’s performance in 2019. That puts them level with Plaid and firmly ahead of the Conservatives, who collapse to just 15%, amounting to an 11 point decline.
>This would make Reform the joint-second largest party in Wales. Their support is concentrated in older, non-graduate voters. The party’s strongest foothold is in South Wales, where they placed second in 13Westminster constituencies in July. They are pulling in 22% of 2024 Conservative voters, but also 9% of Labour’s. Crucially, Reform are winning twice as many Leave voters as the Conservatives, while Labour and Plaid are splitting the Remain vote while retaining a modest appeal to Leavers (17% and 18%, respectively). Effectively, Reform is eating the 2019 Conservative Party’s lunch.
…
>Plaid Cymru sit at 24%, with excellent voter retention (96%) and strong support in North, Mid, and West Wales. Their challenge is expanding beyond their base. While they outperform Labour among younger voters and those who voted Remain, they trail Labour in the south and Reform among older, non-university-educated voters.
…
>The cost of living (60%) and the NHS (58%) dominate the public agenda. Immigration (34%) remains a key concern, but its salience is largely confined to the political right.
Honestly expected Labour to be lower. This suggests their vote is holding up better in Wales than the rest of the UK
Quarter of the electorate buy Reform’s bullshit, good time to be a scammer in Wales with people this thick wandering around.
I honestly think that much of the Labour vote will not be a “Labour vote” but an anti-reform vote. Although with the new PR system or semi-PR system? Smaller parties could benefit, I think a lot of people will vote Labour as Anti-Reform.
I think this might be because people will think as a first past the post system is either All or nothing.
Will be interesting to see, as I think thay unfortunately Reform can actually come first. Although we have seen in the past in other countries that there are mobilisations against these far right parties which are not caught by polls.
Reform again? Really? It takes a particularly thick cunt of a person to support Farage and his soundbite thirsty antics..
Why are Welsh people voting for an English Nationalist party? Are you stupid?
Oh for fuck sake, reform are increasing?
Wake up Wales. Reform? Seriously.
Who the cluster f**k is voting Deform?
Makes me want to give up hope on humanity. From bad to worse, then worse again. Ffs mun!
A red rosette on a donkey standing for Labour and the people of Wales would still vote for it.
Everything they have done on national basis has failed.
The biggest group, as usual, will be those who don’t vote at all.
The Senedd is a joke of an institution that didn’t have a democratic mandate to be created in the first place and has failed to engage the electorate as a whole in 25 years of its existence. Meanwhile it’s used by a militant minority to push through harmful ethno-nationalist agendas that make Wales worse for the vast majority of her people.
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