The world order of the last few decades may be over — what emerges could include China

7 comments

1. Statement:

   As the tit-for-tat trade war between the United States and the rest of the world but especially China intensifies, it’s showing that the world order of the past few generations is changing. Having the US throw away decades-old alliances and influence in favour of a more insular approach leaves a power vaccum in the world, which could be, in part, filled by China especially given its increasing influence on global affairs and relationships.

2. Some of the more pertinent sections of this article:

   >”The world order of the last 80 years as we know it is dead,” said Cameron Johnson, a senior partner with Shanghai-based supply chain consultancy Tidalwave Solutions.
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   >As countries everywhere grapple with their responses to Trump’s sweeping tariffs — now on pause at the baseline 10 per cent for 90 days except for China — some analysts say the world may have no choice but to look toward Asia to bolster trade and co-operation, especially as the U.S. regime appears to be increasingly unpredictable.
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   >…
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   >Conversely, China, for years, has been positioning itself as a country with which others can do business and trade, making inroads into several continents, most notably with its massive Belt and Road Initiative, a series of global infrastructure projects designed to bolster its economic and political footprint. In many ways, the reshaping of the world order arguably began long before Trump’s second term.
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   >China has become Africa’s largest trading partner in the last 20 years. Since 2009, it has also been the largest trading partner of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) countries.
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   >”[China is] the only country with the money, people and technology that can assist developing nations,” Johnson said, pointing out the U.S. has pivoted to demanding investment in its own country, like in autos, as opposed to expanding its overseas markets.
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   >Practically, countries who want investment and technology could presumably be forced to turn to China, as a tech leader and the world’s second-largest economy.
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   >…
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   >There is speculation China and European countries could also grow closer as the drama unfolds, despite frosty relations, marked by recent anti-dumping investigations.
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   >On Tuesday, Chinese Premier Li Qiang and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen held a phone call stressing the “paramount importance of maintaining the continuity and stability of EU-China relations,” according to the commission.
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   >Negotiations are set to resume on the EU’s tariffs on Chinese-made electric vehicles, imposed last fall. (There’s still no word on whether Canada intends to keep its 100 per cent tariff, modelled after the Biden-era U.S. levy, on EVs from China.)
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   >…
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   >What will emerge if and when the dust settles is far from clear, but many analysts like Wang say the U.S.-China relationship, at least, is “beyond salvation.”
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   >”There is a chance for a full breakdown,” she said.
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   >It could mean there’s now more of an opportunity for China to play an even bigger role in the world. The West may have no choice but to accept it.

   This won’t just be China that will be holding an increasing amount of sway globally. Other blocs with either regional or global influence, such as the EU will be jockeying in the coming years to affect the outcomes of this reordering as well. It looks like the Marshall Plan continues apace, just now borne by other nations and groups rather than the US.

   edit: word choice

3. Will*

4. So really it’s not as simple as just a “decline of the west” indeed it seems that while US influence wanes, the other western countries may assert themselves more. This alongside the increasing influence of China indicates to me a world order more dictated by the Eurasian continent with America north and south being secondary once again. A return to the power of the old world, including Asia and Europe.

   Feel free to disagree with this, I’m curious to hear what people think.

5. If there is something to be said about China it’s that the motivations, methods and actions of its leadership are fairly predictable. One might vehemently disagree with all of those, but they have remained consistent. Trump administration is the polar opposite of that where friend nor enemy alike can ever assume to know what US will do next, and if they do something, how long will that go on until they change their mind.

   Neither Trump’s threats nor actions hold any negotiation power at this point as all Trump’s threats have a 50% chance of either not being carried out at all or the actions that do get carried out have a 50% chance of being walked back immediately after being taken. End result being that everyone is in this bizarre decision paralysis of waiting for things to either fall apart or improve before committing to any decision. As evidenced by the bouncy castle of a stock market that exists in the quantum state of “It’s so over!” and “We are so back!”

   Humans dislike uncertainty, and many would rather deal with the devil they know than the one they don’t, which I suspect will happen regarding EU-China relations. Despite all the obvious friction points such relations would have, at least China is a known quantity you can plan around of.

6. “May be over”?

   Well, I guess, in the sense that it might be salvaged if, say, the US Congress elected somebody sane to be Speaker of the House, then removed both Trump and Vance, thus installing that person as President, and that person and the Congress both apologized publicly and showed solid commitment to undoing everything Trump has done.

   Then things would only a bit worse than the already difficult situation before. You might be able to pull the whole thing out.

   Anything much short of that, and that world order is gone.

   Not holding my breath.

7. The size of China’s economy today is roughly 66% of that of the US. This was roughly the size of Soviet economy at the peak of the Soviet power in the early 1970s. But the gap between the Soviet Union and the US widened in the 1980s with the Soviets facing a host of setbacks like Afghanistan crisis, energy crisis and internal contradictions etc. In contrast, China despite its sluggishness, is growing faster than America. It is the world’s largest exporter. If it continues to grow even at the current pace, China will overtake the US as the world’s largest economy soon. America hasn’t faced this kind of a challenge ever since it became a global superpower.

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