Japan sees record drop in population

3 comments

1. 1. This is not a Japanese phenomenon. This is not a developed world phenomenon. This is not a Western world phenomenon. This is a GLOBAL phenomenon. China, Mexico, Brazil, India, Russia, Turkey, Vietnam, Argentina, Iran, Thailand, Indonesia, The Philippines, Colombia, Malaysia, etc…are all at or bellow population replacement. The only places that are still having high birthrates are sub-Saharan Africa and parts of central Asia.
   2. We don’t know exactly what is causing this, as this is happening in rich and poor countries alike. It is happening in countries with massive social-welfare safety nets and subsidies and in countries with none of those. It is happening in secular countries and in highly religious countries alike. It is happening in countries with harsh working conditions and in countries that provide generous vacations and strict laws against overtime work. The only common pattern seems to be urbanization. Scandinavian countries, countries like Singapore, Japan and South Korea have invested massive amounts of money trying to revert birthrates declines with not much to show for it. Singapore for example virtually guarantees affordable housing for all of its citizens, plus free schooling, affordable medical care, etc… and still has one of the lowest birthrates in the planet. No country has yet figured out how to reverse the trend, but many are trying.
   3. It is not an issue with capitalism. Non-market economies like Cuba and North Korea are facing the same crisis.
   4. Nobody is pushing for “infinite growth”. Most people agree that flat population growth or a small decline is good. The problem is the pace of the decline. When birthrates fall off a cliff, as we are seeing now, you end up with a massively large old population that needs to be supported by an ever declining young population. We don’t know how to run a society with more retirees than working people, or with more sickly people than healthy ones. In the entire history of humanity, this scenario has never happened.
   5. Fun fact – Jamaica, Thailand, Mauritius, and the United Arab Emirates have lower fertility rates than Sweden, Denmark, Iceland, the Netherlands, Switzerland or Canada.

2. Does this mean that years/decades from now the Japanese economy might collapse?

   Does anyone have any good theories on what Japan would look like in that situation?

3. I am starting to believe that the only thing that will stop the birth rate decline will be the complete collapse of the pension system. Once that happens people will basically be forced to go back to the old way “If I don’t have kids, nobody will take care of me in my old age”.

   It’s going to get very very ugly.

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