India edges closer to China, hedging against Trump’s unpredictability

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2025/04/18/india-china-ties-trump/

Posted by BROWN-MUNDA_

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  1. SS: **Full Summary:**

    India is cautiously warming up to China as a strategic hedge against U.S. President Donald Trump’s unpredictable policies, particularly in trade and foreign affairs. While India and China have historically been rivals—especially due to their long-standing Himalayan border dispute—recent shifts in global dynamics are encouraging both sides to test a fragile diplomatic thaw.

    After years of tension, including a deadly border clash in 2020 that killed 20 Indian and at least 4 Chinese soldiers, both nations have agreed on buffer zones, resumed diplomatic exchanges, and reopened cultural and religious routes. Prime Minister Narendra Modi and President Xi Jinping met in late 2024, marking a notable step in resuming dialogue.

    Analysts say India’s move is not a realignment but a tactical adjustment, aimed at gaining flexibility in dealing with the U.S. as Trump’s foreign policy becomes increasingly erratic. Trump’s earlier surprise trade deal with China during his first term left India feeling sidelined. Now, with Trump ramping up tariffs on Chinese goods (145% in some cases), New Delhi is hedging its bets by cautiously engaging Beijing, while keeping its long-term strategic alliance with the U.S. intact.

    India and China have restarted limited economic collaborations, especially in tech and manufacturing. However, mutual distrust remains. Despite relaxing some visa rules and investment barriers, India has kept restrictions on key Chinese firms like Huawei and BYD, and Chinese development along the disputed border continues to outpace Indian efforts.

    Indian policymakers remain wary of being seen as “anti-American” by getting too close to China. There’s also concern that China could exploit the loss of U.S. markets by dumping cheap goods into India, threatening its economy and “Make in India” ambitions. On the flip side, some Indian officials support Trump’s tough stance on China, seeing it as aligning with their own national interests.

    Nevertheless, skepticism remains about Trump’s reliability. Some officials fear a transactional U.S. administration may compromise India’s strategic standing, especially regarding the Quad alliance (U.S., India, Japan, Australia) aimed at countering China’s influence.

    Ultimately, India is looking to diversify its global partnerships amid shifting global power structures, adopting what experts call “strategic ambiguity” to maintain leverage with both the U.S. and China.

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