Speculating on who will become the next Pope is a centuries-old practice; records suggest that betting on the outcome of papal elections goes back more than 500 years.
However, predicting what way the papal conclave will vote is a notoriously difficult task.
During the last conclave in 2013, Pope Francis was considered one of the less likely papabili (papal candidates) to become the next pontiff.
More: Cardinal Pietro Parolin: The vatican diplomat who is frontrunner to succeed Pope Francis
More: How is a new Pope selected? What happens at a papal conclave
Early bookmaker favourites included some ‘liberal’ Cardinals who have been known to share Pope Francis’ views on modernising the Church, however there are some conservative candidates also in the mix.
Early bookmaker favourites included ‘continuity’ cardinals who would be expected to continue on Pope Francis’ plans for the Church. (AP) (Alessandra Tarantino/AP)
Here’s a selection of potential ‘conservative’ and ‘liberal’ successors.
Cardinal Péter Erdő is the Primate of Hungary (katolikus.hu)
Hungary | 72
A former President of the Council of Episcopal Conferences of Europe, Cardinal Erdo is the Archbishop of Esztergom-Budapest and Primate of Hungary.
Regarded as one of the most prominent conservative voices in the church, he is reported as having said that the taking in of refugees during the 2015 migrant crisis could constitute human trafficking, and is opposed to divorce and civilly remarried Catholics receiving communion.
A papabile during the last conclave, he is believed to have strong ties with some of the African bishops, meaning he has the potential to draw both European and African votes.
Cardinal Fridolin Ambongo is President of
the Symposium of Episcopal Conferences of Africa and Madagascar (secam.org)
Democratic Republic of Congo | 66
While Pope Francis became the first pontiff to hail from Latin America, Cardinal Besungu has been tipped by some to become the first African leader of the church since Pope Victor I in 189 AD.
Made a cardinal by Francis in 2019, he has served as President of the Symposium of Episcopal Conferences of Africa and Madagascar (SECAM) since 2023.
Cardinal Besungu holds orthodox views on family, priestly celibacy and moral teaching. He garnered attention for his opposition to Fiducia Supplicans, a 2023 declaration by the Pope which allows priests to bless couples who are not considered to be married according to church teaching, including same-sex couples. His opposition and negotiation of an opt-out from the declaration marked him as an early contender.
Cardinal Raymond Leo Burke is the former patron of the Order of Malta (guadalupeshrine.org)
United States of America | 76
Widely recognized as one of the church’s foremost experts in canon law, Cardinal Burke is a former Prefect of the Supreme Tribunal of the Apostolic Signatura – the highest judicial authority in the Catholic Church aside from the Pope himself.
He is known for strong adherence to the revealed doctrine of the church and holds conservative views on issues such as the blessing of same-sex couples.
According to the College of Cardinals Report, he has had a strained relationship with the Pope as he has often been critical of his decisions. In 2023, it was reported that the Pope removed his stipend, pension and healthcare and attempted to evict him from his Vatican apartment.
Vatican Secretary of State Cardinal Pietro Parolin with Pope Francis (Riccardo De Luca/AP) (Riccardo De Luca/AP)
Italy | 70
The Vatican’s Secretary of State since 2013 and a diplomat for the Holy See, Cardinal Parolin has been one of Pope Francis’ most trusted advisors.
Sharing Francis’ outlook on ecclesial and political issues, he has been viewed as a ‘natural successor’. Cardinal Parolin is regarded as a pragmatist and ‘centrist’, favouring progress while adhering to the tradition and heritage of the Catholic Church.
He supported Pope Francis’ move to restrict traditional Latin mass and communion for the divorced and Catholic remarried. On the blessing of same-sex couples, he is reported to have an ambiguous stance, according to the College of Cardinals Report.
Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle is Pro-Prefect for the Section of First Evangelisation of the Dicastery for Evangelisation (ppoomm.va)
Philippines | 68
Sometimes referred to as the ‘Asian Pope Francis’, Cardinal Tagle is the current Pro-Prefect of the Dicastery for Evangelisation and a former Archbishop of Manila.
He tends to share many of Pope Francis’ views on church issues, demonstrated in his criticism of the “harsh words” the church has used towards LGBTQ+ Catholics, but believes the blessing of divorced and remarried Catholics should be on a case-by-case basis.
Cardinal Tagle has long been considered one of the most likely papabili to succeed Francis.
Cardinal Zuppi has been the Archbishop of Bologna since 2015 (chiesadibologna.it)
Italy | 70
Cardinal Zuppi has been the Archbishop of Bologna for ten years and the President of the Episcopal Conference of Italy since 2022.
Made a Cardinal by Pope Francis in 2019, he has supported Francis’ attempts to modernise the Church and is in favour of blessing same-sex couples and divorced and remarried Catholics receiving communion, as well as restricting traditional Latin mass.
Cardinal Zuppi is viewed as another continuity successor to Pope Francis.