I think sovereignty talks are far more relevant than anything regarding tariffs, but I think the reality for most people is still a pretty simple calculation:
Trudeau < Poilievre < Carney
Wish I had any idea what those letters stood for, or the party policies.
Seems like NDP and Liberals coalesced their vote.
Tracks for me. I was going to vote NDP. Once Trudeau was swapped out, I flipped to Carney.
One thing to keep in mind looking at this is that you can read this as the conservatives doing just as well and the Liberals only rebounding because the NDP collapsed.
That is partially correct, however most NDP and BQ voters are not changing their vote because their party messed up, they are voting for the “lesser evil” in the LPC because the conservatives have ran such a bad campaign. All Poilievre and the CPC had to do was have a strong and resounding response to Trump and MAGA policies and they would have won handily. Instead Poilievre refuses to pivot from “anti-woke” messaging, consistently uses Trump style campaigning, does not have open media availability, refuses to get his security clearance, and can’t distance himself from Maple MAGA members of his party.
If the LPC gets a majority on Monday it’s the greatest political collapse in Canadian history and it was entirely preventable.
What I’m taking away here is the LPC does best with no leader.
Trudeau resigns *crowd cheers*
Fortunes skyrocket
Carney appointed *crowd begins mildly booing*
It’s all about PM, tariff is just a distraction in the pattern so far – but who knows what happens in next few days.
Well at least somebody learned from watching Trump.
Wild how liberals can just slap a fresh coat of paint on the same broken-down clown car and people line up like it’s some revolutionary upgrade. Like, wow! New spokesperson, same garbage policies, but suddenly everyone’s memory resets like we’re living in a political episode of ‘Black Mirror.’
Ten years of inflation, censorship, identity politics shoved down everyone’s throat, skyrocketing crime, zero accountability, and a government that treats hardworking citizens like walking ATMs while hugging it out with violent offenders. But sure, let’s pretend it’s all cool now because the branding looks nicer and someone cried during their press conference. Touching.
Reddit went from ‘question everything’ to ‘clap like a seal for approved narratives.’ Criticize anything and suddenly you’re anti-everything. You don’t want state-run media shoved down your throat? Anti-democracy. Question government overreach? Extremist. Say maybe criminals shouldn’t be treated better than homeowners? Wow, fascist vibes.
It’s not even about left vs. right anymore, it’s reality vs. delusion. And somehow, the delusion keeps getting upvoted.
Outsider looking in, why did NDP lose support? From my understanding of Parliamentary systems is correct, wouldn’t the NDP and Liberals form a coalition anyway?
I would also mark when Trump started threatening Canada’s sovereignty by claiming we should be the 51rst state. Where the liberals had a strong response/statements to that, the leader of the Conservative Party of Canada (Pierre Poilievre) was fairly soft in responding to that. It was a pretty decent contrast.
These look like estimates, which really should have some error bars.
![[OC] Tariffs and other factors on Canadian election polling](https://www.europesays.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/rrt6kc8c0wwe1-1920x1024.png)
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Source Data: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2025_Canadian_federal_election
Tariff dates source data: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_United_States_trade_war_with_Canada_and_Mexico
Tools Used: Python (Pandas + Numpy, Matplotlib, Statsmodel for LOESS fitting)
I think sovereignty talks are far more relevant than anything regarding tariffs, but I think the reality for most people is still a pretty simple calculation:
Trudeau < Poilievre < Carney
Wish I had any idea what those letters stood for, or the party policies.
Seems like NDP and Liberals coalesced their vote.
Tracks for me. I was going to vote NDP. Once Trudeau was swapped out, I flipped to Carney.
One thing to keep in mind looking at this is that you can read this as the conservatives doing just as well and the Liberals only rebounding because the NDP collapsed.
That is partially correct, however most NDP and BQ voters are not changing their vote because their party messed up, they are voting for the “lesser evil” in the LPC because the conservatives have ran such a bad campaign. All Poilievre and the CPC had to do was have a strong and resounding response to Trump and MAGA policies and they would have won handily. Instead Poilievre refuses to pivot from “anti-woke” messaging, consistently uses Trump style campaigning, does not have open media availability, refuses to get his security clearance, and can’t distance himself from Maple MAGA members of his party.
If the LPC gets a majority on Monday it’s the greatest political collapse in Canadian history and it was entirely preventable.
What I’m taking away here is the LPC does best with no leader.
Trudeau resigns *crowd cheers*
Fortunes skyrocket
Carney appointed *crowd begins mildly booing*
It’s all about PM, tariff is just a distraction in the pattern so far – but who knows what happens in next few days.
Well at least somebody learned from watching Trump.
Wild how liberals can just slap a fresh coat of paint on the same broken-down clown car and people line up like it’s some revolutionary upgrade. Like, wow! New spokesperson, same garbage policies, but suddenly everyone’s memory resets like we’re living in a political episode of ‘Black Mirror.’
Ten years of inflation, censorship, identity politics shoved down everyone’s throat, skyrocketing crime, zero accountability, and a government that treats hardworking citizens like walking ATMs while hugging it out with violent offenders. But sure, let’s pretend it’s all cool now because the branding looks nicer and someone cried during their press conference. Touching.
Reddit went from ‘question everything’ to ‘clap like a seal for approved narratives.’ Criticize anything and suddenly you’re anti-everything. You don’t want state-run media shoved down your throat? Anti-democracy. Question government overreach? Extremist. Say maybe criminals shouldn’t be treated better than homeowners? Wow, fascist vibes.
It’s not even about left vs. right anymore, it’s reality vs. delusion. And somehow, the delusion keeps getting upvoted.
Outsider looking in, why did NDP lose support? From my understanding of Parliamentary systems is correct, wouldn’t the NDP and Liberals form a coalition anyway?
I would also mark when Trump started threatening Canada’s sovereignty by claiming we should be the 51rst state. Where the liberals had a strong response/statements to that, the leader of the Conservative Party of Canada (Pierre Poilievre) was fairly soft in responding to that. It was a pretty decent contrast.
These look like estimates, which really should have some error bars.
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