Survey shows growing anxiety in Japan over future Asian war

After enjoying eight decades of peace since World War II, a growing number of Japanese fear Japan will be caught up in a major war in Asia, with 62 percent in a new survey saying such a conflict is likely.

That marks a significant increase from the 50 percent in a similar survey conducted a decade ago.

In a recent Asahi Shimbun survey, respondents were asked to assess the likelihood of Japan becoming involved in a large-scale war in Asia at some point in the future.

The survey found that 12 percent said a war is “very likely” and 50 percent said it is “likely.” Meanwhile, 30 percent believed a war is unlikely and just 5 percent said there is “no chance” of a war.

This marks a notable shift in public sentiment from the 2015 survey, where opinions were more evenly split: 50 percent saw war as likely, while 46 percent disagreed.

The results suggest that more Japanese now feel the country is entering what some have described as a “new pre-war era.” 

Regional security concerns are closely linked to perceptions of an increasingly assertive China.

Among respondents who view China as a threat–a third of the total–22 percent said a war involving Japan is “very likely,” nearly double the overall average of 12 percent.

Doubts about Japan’s alliance with the United States seem to fuel unease.

Despite the Japan-U.S. Security Treaty, only 15 percent of respondents believe the United States would “definitely protect” Japan in the event of a crisis. 

A striking 77 percent expressed skepticism about Washington’s commitment to Japan’s defense. Within this pessimistic group, 67 percent believe a major war involving Japan is likely.

The ongoing war in Ukraine, now in its fourth year, also seems to be influencing Japanese public opinion.

Among those who reported a strong interest in current global conflicts–a third of the total–72 percent said a major war in Asia involving Japan is likely.

The survey was conducted by mail between late February and early April among 3,000 randomly selected voters across the country. Of these, 63 percent, or 1,899 individuals, returned valid responses.