For over 70 years, the Jammu and Kashmir conflict has served as
a fault line for serial wars in South Asia. Now, it is attracting a
new cast of geopolitical players, reinvigorating an unresolved
crisis with global implications.
At its core, the roots of the conflict are deceptively simple.
Following the collapse of British colonial rule, a newly
independent India struggled to define its identity within the
region. In doing so, it projected instability outward, adversely
affecting its neighbours. The first war between India and Pakistan
broke out in 1947–48 over the princely state of Jammu and Kashmir.
Though the fighting eventually ceased, the underlying issue was
never resolved—setting the stage for decades of confrontation.
The conflict is fundamentally fueled by religious and ethnic
fault lines. Its origins predate even independence, simmering under
colonial rule. But after partition, the Indian state began
implementing policies that exacerbated these divides. Because Jammu
and Kashmir holds both strategic and touristic value, India
launched a campaign to suppress the region’s Pakistani-leaning
population, beginning with the marginalisation of the local Muslim
community. Over time, these policies evolved into more systematic
social engineering, fragmenting Muslim communities through
caste-based segregation. The situation has reached such a critical
point that today, the wealthy constitute merely 1% of the
population in the region, yet they control more than 58% of the
nation’s wealth. Prime Minister Narendra Modi, through his
increasingly unbalanced and exclusionary policies, is rapidly
losing credibility, not only across the region but throughout India
as a whole. Since coming to power in 2014, Modi has seen a sharp
decline in support over the past decade. This is largely due to the
persistence of a political agenda that remains deeply rooted in the
anti-Muslim and ethnically divisive policies reminiscent of the
1960s-era government.
India’s distinct demographic structure compared to Pakistan
created fertile ground for such manipulation. By the 1960s,
Pakistan had little choice but to respond with military force to
counter India’s increasingly coercive and expansionist tactics.
Despite efforts to elevate the issue to the United Nations, India
refused to step back from its occupation-driven policies.
The conflict deepened when China entered the fray.
In 1962, a month-long war erupted between China and India,
creating a temporary power vacuum in the region. Sensing an
opportunity, Pakistan mobilised its resources in an effort to
liberate Kashmir. India, weakened and wary of losing control,
engaged in provocations on multiple fronts to regain the upper
hand. In 1965, Pakistan launched Operation Gibraltar, a military
initiative that could have resolved the Kashmir conflict once and
for all. But external interference once again froze the conflict in
place.
Kashmir, nuclear escalation, and China’s
shadow
The 1970s brought major shifts to Pakistan. External meddling in
its political system and foreign-backed uprisings diverted national
attention. India, bolstered by its foreign allies, used the moment
to try to shelve the Kashmir issue entirely.
The 1970 general elections were a turning point. Sheikh Mujibur
Rahman’s Awami League won a democratic majority but was blocked
from assuming power by the West Pakistani elite. This led to
massive unrest, and Pakistan responded with a brutal
crackdown—Operation Searchlight in March 1971—plunging the country
into chaos. Pro-India political factions within Pakistan exploited
the crisis, deepening the internal fracture.
Thus, the 1965 war cemented Kashmir as the perpetual flashpoint
between India and Pakistan. And the 1971 war—culminating in the
creation of Bangladesh—marked the most significant geopolitical
upheaval in South Asian history, permanently altering Pakistan’s
territorial map.
India, ever opportunistic, maintained the regional tempo of
tension with the backing of outside powers. Granting independence
to part of Pakistan’s territory gave New Delhi both symbolic and
strategic leverage. The creation of Bangladesh not only intensified
Indo-Pakistani hostility but also set off a regional arms race,
culminating in nuclear tests by both India and Pakistan in
1998.
Today, the Kashmir dispute lies at the razor’s edge of a nuclear
crisis. Rising tensions create openings for global powers to
manipulate the situation to their advantage. Many experts argue
that the West now favours India, not just to counter Pakistan, but
with an eye on China’s potential involvement, echoing the dynamics
of the 1962 conflict.
Renewed role in US-China rivalry
Regardless of scale, wars inevitably cast long shadows—even on
states not directly involved. The United States’ sharp reactions to
developments in South Asia are no accident. Washington, long
frustrated by trade imbalances with Beijing, sees regional
instability as a tool to weaken China’s influence. The recent
agreement on shipment of 26 Rafale fighter jets from France to
India and growing Western overtures to the Modi government have
turned India into a regional proxy—if not a full-fledged
catalyst—for broader strategic aims.
India may not be able to stand alone against China militarily,
but it does not have to. Western powers are not necessarily betting
on India to win—they are betting on China being drawn into the
fray. For the US, China’s involvement in a regional conflict could
relieve some of the pressure from the larger US-China rivalry.
The nuclear threat between India and Pakistan is currently in
question, but if China is drawn into the conflict, it could trigger
a catastrophic escalation. History teaches us that when giants
clash, the resulting fire engulfs the surroundings. Today, China’s
direct friction with India in the region suggests that we are
moving dangerously close to such a scenario.