US Special Envoy: “Russia Has Made No Progress in 18 Months. Will Not Win War”

5 comments

1. Tell that to Putler.

2. 100 days later and the current US administration finally catches up to a bit short of where the old one had got.

   Bravo I guess… 🤡

3. This is Kellogg, his position on the war and Russia are well known. He is the special envoy to Ukraine and is not directly involved in negotiations, that is Witkoff. Kellogg
   said this a few days ago and has repeated this many times. If Witkoff said this it would hold more weight as he is likely to replace Waltz’s role as head of national security.

   The blog is trying to overplay the significance of this as proof this admin is changing sides. Trump a day ago said russia is much stronger than Ukraine which contradicts Kellogg’s stafement.

4. They not aim to win the war, they want to “solve Ukrainian issue”, and they do it perfectly fine, grinding down all cities and settlements in range of their weapons.

5. Look at WHICH Special Envoy said that. It is Kellogg, the one who was “too close to Ukraine” in the view of the Russians, so Trump pulled him off contact with Russiand and made him Special Envoy to Ukraine instead.

   So while I share the assessment, that he probably wouldn’t state this opinion without White House approval, however I disagree with that part of the opinion, where he states, that Ukraine can’t win militarily either and that it needs diplomacy.

   Ukraine can very well win this militarily in a war of attrition.

   “But they’re only 40 Million against 140 million!!!” would some answer to this, but keep in mind, that Ukraine largely switched to a tactic of fighting Russians before they even reach Ukrainian lines. 9 out of 10 Russian Casualties these days happen because of drone or artillery attacks. And Ukraine is attacking strategic targets in- and outside Russia with Long-Range Drones, in some areas with western approval even with western missiles. There are targets of high logistical value like the ammunition depots or the Russian Oil Sector.

   So Russian Logistics are getting weaker and weaker since the War turned to Open Invasion in February 2022 and they loose more and more men, most of them before they even reach Ukrainian Lines.

   The limited advances, that do happen, happen where Russians concentrate an overwhelming mass of troops, so that the 10% of Russian Soldiers, that do reach Ukrainian lines, are enough of a threat so they can actually take something.
   But it was way worse in 2022, when Russians captured large swaths of land. Now they took one year for advancing the 40 kilometes from Avdiivka to Pokrovsk!

   So it is foreseeable, that the Russian offenses at some point in the medium term future (I’d estimate within 2025) will completely stall out and when that happens, Ukraine can start counter-offensives again and break through at some point, liberating large swaths of Ukrainian Territory and encircle Russian Forces in larger numbers in the process, forcing them to either capitulate or starve them to death.

   And when that happens, when the Russian Forces within Ukraine destabilize and disintegrate, the Russian Regime will get into huge trouble in the interior.

   This is how Ukraine can achieve a military victory, if need be.

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