Turning to oats, March 31 stocks came in at 1.283 mmt compared to 1.476 mmt last year. That puts them barely above the 2022 level of 1.227 mmt following the devastating drought of 2021. Prices eventually exceeded $11/bushel CAD in Southern Manitoba as physical short positions had to be bought out. Interestingly enough, on-farm totals are just as bullish with only 1.006 mmt remaining on March 31 compared to 1.137 mmt last year and not much above the 0.925 mmt on-farm stocks in 2022. Other than the 2022 low, you have to go back to 2003 to find tighter stocks.

While on the topic of feed grains, barley stocks fell slightly to 3.066 mmt, from 3.072 mmt last year. That could be taken as a bearish surprise considering ending stocks are expected to fall by 367,000 mt versus last year, according to Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC). The culprit could be a reduction in animal feed use implied by the data. It is pegged at 4.270 mmt for the first quarter of 2025 versus 4.680 mmt for the previous year.

Increased feeding of Canadian grain corn (given the lack of imports from the U.S.) could be responsible. March 31 stocks of corn for grain were down 13% from last year, at 7.197 mmt compared to 8.268 mmt. Ending stocks are currently expected to be slightly above year-earlier levels according to AAFC, implying March 31 stocks should have been close as well. With March 31 stocks being 1.071 below last year, it suggests added feed use.

Wheat stocks came in little changed from last year with durum wheat supplies increasing 2.7% year-over-year to 2.003 mmt compared to 1.951 mmt last year. March 31 wheat ex-durum stocks fell 1.7% to 13.419 mmt compared to 13.650 mmt last year.

On the pulse side, dry field pea stocks did recover with March 31 supplies up 42% from last year at 1.356 mmt compared to 0.955 mmt last year. It’s worth noting that 2024 marked the lowest total since 2008 with 2018 marking the highest this century at 2.259 mmt. Even though a 42% increase sounds serious, it just returns stocks to normal levels.

Lentils told a similar story with March 31 stocks up 30.3% from year-ago levels. At 1.048 mmt compared to 0.804 mmt last year, the increase simply returns stocks to more normal levels. The 2019 high was 1.697 mmt with a decade low being marked in 2016 at 0.555 mmt.

Soybeans came in at 2.393 mmt, up 10.9% compared to 2.158 mmt last year.

March 31 flax stocks fell 21.7% to 253,000 mt compared to 323,000 mt last year.

And, finally, rye stocks witnessed a dramatic rebound, up 55.7% compared to last year at 246,000 mt versus 158,000 mt the previous year.

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Mitch Miller can be reached at mitchmiller.dtn@gmail.com

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