In 2024, a notable trend emerged among several leading European law firms: the closure or downsizing of offices in Hong Kong and across Asia, accompanied by a strategic reallocation of such resources to the United States. This movement was widely interpreted as a vote of confidence in the American legal market, driven by the prevailing belief in ‘American Exceptionalism’—the idea that the U.S. economy and legal sector would continue to dominate global growth and innovation.
However, as 2025 unfolds, cracks have appeared in this narrative. The inauguration of Donald Trump ushered in an unprecedented wave of renewed tariff policies against all traditional allies and major trading partners, unseen since the years leading up to the Great Depression, resulted in the short circuiting of the U.S. markets with experts increasingly conclude the likelihood of U.S. recession.