Vistra (VST, Financial) has entered into a definitive agreement to purchase seven contemporary natural gas generation facilities from Lotus Infrastructure Partners, enhancing its geographical reach across PJM, New England, New York, and California. These facilities boast a total capacity of around 2,600 MW, comprising five combined cycle gas turbine facilities and two combustion turbine facilities. The acquisition is valued at $1.9 billion, translating to approximately $743 per kW, with certain adjustments for net working capital.
This strategic move is poised to bring immediate benefits to Vistra’s shareholders, with expectations of Ongoing Operations AFCFbG1 per share accretion. Vistra plans to finance the acquisition through a mix of cash on hand and the assumption of an existing term loan from Lotus, which is anticipated to account for about 50% of the transaction value at closing. The purchase price indicates a multiple of roughly 7x the estimated Adjusted EBITDA for 2026, excluding potential synergies.
The transaction is pending approval from regulatory bodies like the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission and the Department of Justice under the Hart-Scott-Rodino Act, with a closing date anticipated in late 2025 or early 2026.
Wall Street Analysts Forecast
Based on the one-year price targets offered by 15 analysts, the average target price for Vistra Corp (VST, Financial) is $164.46 with a high estimate of $194.00 and a low estimate of $120.00. The average target implies an
upside of 8.15%
from the current price of $152.06. More detailed estimate data can be found on the Vistra Corp (VST) Forecast page.
Based on the consensus recommendation from 17 brokerage firms, Vistra Corp’s (VST, Financial) average brokerage recommendation is currently 1.8, indicating “Outperform” status. The rating scale ranges from 1 to 5, where 1 signifies Strong Buy, and 5 denotes Sell.
Based on GuruFocus estimates, the estimated GF Value for Vistra Corp (VST, Financial) in one year is $61.71, suggesting a
downside
of 59.42% from the current price of $152.06. GF Value is GuruFocus’ estimate of the fair value that the stock should be traded at. It is calculated based on the historical multiples the stock has traded at previously, as well as past business growth and the future estimates of the business’ performance. More detailed data can be found on the Vistra Corp (VST) Summary page.
VST Key Business Developments
Release Date: May 07, 2025
Adjusted EBITDA: $1.240 billion for Q1 2025.Generation Adjusted EBITDA: $1.056 billion.Retail Adjusted EBITDA: $184 million.2025 Adjusted EBITDA Guidance: $5.5 billion to $6.1 billion.Adjusted Free Cash Flow Before Growth Guidance: $3 billion to $3.6 billion for 2025.Share Repurchases: Approximately 163 million shares repurchased since November 2021.Dividend Increase: 49% increase in dividend per share since Q4 2021.Net Leverage Ratio: Just under 3 times adjusted EBITDA.Solar and Energy Storage CapEx: Over $700 million expected in 2025.Hedging Program: Approximately 100% of 2025 expected generation hedged; 90% for 2026.
For the complete transcript of the earnings call, please refer to the full earnings call transcript.
Positive Points Vistra Corp (VST, Financial) achieved a significant year-over-year increase in adjusted EBITDA, reaching approximately $1.240 billion for Q1 2025, a 53% rise compared to Q1 2024.The company reaffirmed its 2025 guidance for adjusted EBITDA between $5.5 billion and $6.1 billion, and adjusted free cash flow before growth of $3 billion to $3.6 billion.Vistra Corp (VST) has successfully hedged approximately 95% of its expected generation for 2025 and 2026, providing stability and resilience against market volatility.The company continues to execute its capital return plan, having returned approximately $6.3 billion to investors through share repurchases and dividends since 2021.Vistra Corp (VST) is advancing its strategic energy transition with ongoing solar and energy storage projects, including partnerships with Amazon and Microsoft, adding over 600 megawatts of renewable capacity to its portfolio. Negative Points Vistra Corp (VST) faces policy challenges and uncertainties, particularly with the ongoing legislative activities in Texas and regulatory processes in PJM, which could impact future operations and growth.The company experienced an outage at Martin Lake Unit 1 and its Moss Landing batteries were offline, which could affect operational performance.There is uncertainty regarding the finalization of Senate Bill 6 in Texas, which could impact the company’s ability to secure data center deals and other large load opportunities.Vistra Corp (VST) has not yet updated its 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance, despite indicating potential for significant growth, leading to some uncertainty about future financial performance.The company is navigating a turbulent macroeconomic environment, which could pose risks to its operational and financial outlook.