Trump’s patience is wearing thin. Netanyahu risks global isolation

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1. When Binyamin Netanyahu decided to resume a trickle of aid into Gaza, his far-right support base reacted with fury. But Israel’s allies, the prime minister said in his defence, could not handle “pictures of mass starvation”.

   It was no coincidence that the concession, described by the UN as a “drop in the ocean” after almost three months of siege, came days after President Trump wrapped up his tour of Gulf Arab states. The leaders who lavished hundreds of billions of dollars on the US during the trip said they wanted him to end the war, and Trump pledged to at least help the “starving” people in Gaza.

   The president seemed genuinely concerned at the plight of the Palestinians in the territory, sources familiar with his conversations during the tour said.

   He had also grown increasingly impatient with Netanyahu, “who he didn’t even like”, one source emphasised, and who has made a career of running circles around US presidents since Bill Clinton. Trump is not like his predecessors, and world leaders have learnt to tread carefully around the mercurial president who can turn on a dime if sufficiently cajoled by a confidant or friend.

   The US is pushing both sides to accept a compromise in talks mediated by Qatar. The talks so far have failed, Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman bin Jassim Al Thani, the Gulf country’s prime minister, said on Tuesday, warning that the Israeli operation was “undermining any chance of peace”.

2. Trump doesn’t loose patience with despots.

3. Whatever agreement is reached at the end, Israel will not agree to Hamas remaining as an influential actor in Gaza. Israelis see this as existential. They may be able to compromise on a limited time frame but they demand the end result of Hamas not being able to threaten Israel at more than the lone terrorist with a gun level again.

   Hamas obviously refuses that end goal even when it is totally clear it has no conventional way of forcing Israel to give up. So it proceeds to use the only leverages it has which are to sacrifice even more Gazans as leverage on the international community and refuse to release the remaining hostages.

   Because Israel views the war as existential I don’t think this strategy is going to work this time. The US has gained a well earned reputation of using sanctions as a replacement for actual solutions to problems and is prone to place them just as it is to remove them. This is not even limited to Mr. Trump but an issue with all presidents in the last 30 years. The reason Israel reached its current status is because the US forced all of its wars and operations in Gaza to end without reaching a victory. I doubt the Israeli public will allow this to happen again. The US may be able to delay the inevitable by a few years but they should not delude themselves they do more than kicking the can a few years down the road.

4. It’s been tiresome watching journalists try to cast bones on what Trump actually wants. Last week we had rumors of Trump recognizing a Palestinian state, instead he okayed a Gaza operation and closed the Palestinian affairs office in Washington.

5. The basic issue at hand here is Netanyahu isn’t acting in Israel’s interest but his own personal political one.

   Obviously any lasting ceasefire involves real costs but the thing here is that the only reason he bolted from the last one is because Gvir and Smortich would bolt from his coalition. Ending his career, sending him to a jail cell possibly and ending his efforts to destroy Israeli democracy for the time being.

6. Headlines last year: “Biden very very angwy with netanyahu, he called him a dummy one time after a call”

   Brother who gives a shit, start acting

7. This seems like a ploy to save face for Trump.

   This is a act by Trump to make it seem like he’s pissed at Bibi but they are working together.

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