The Brief – EU play geopolitics with Balkan dominoes

PODGORICA/TIRANA – If Albania and Montenegro stay on course, their accession to the EU may be more than a regional affair – it could tilt the balance of European geopolitics. 

Danish European Affairs Minister Marie Bjerre, 39, has visited all 27 EU capitals. Now her focus is outward. Euractiv joined her in Podgorica and Tirana this week, when she signalled a shift in EU thinking: enlargement is no longer just about reforms. It’s about power. 

“Of course it’s merit-based,” Bjerre tells me as we soak in the last rays of sun before heading back north again. “But it’s also political. Europe needs to be stronger, and therefore bigger.” 

Come July, Denmark takes over the rotating EU presidency and Bjerre will sit at the end of the table when EU member states meet to discuss matters such as budget, cohesion policy and, most notably, enlargement. 

Bjerre says she will use the chair “actively” – not neutrally – to push enlargement forward. 

She’s not alone. European Council chief António Costa recently called Albania and Montenegro the front-runners. A credible fast track for these two may send shockwaves through the rest of the Balkans. 

Montenegro is currently leading the charge, but the push to the finish line is not without obstacles. “Vucic will try to sabotage our progress,” warned Ivan Vuković, an opposition MP chairing the European affairs committee, during a meeting with the Danish delegation. Still, the EU prospect remains rare common ground in Montenegrin politics.

If Montenegro succeeds, it could spell trouble for the Serbian president, who has attempted to balance relations with China, the US, and Europe, but has jeopardised EU accession in the process. Should Montenegrin membership deliver the same rapid economic and political gains seen in countries like Poland and the Baltics, ordinary Serbs may begin to question why their former compatriots are enjoying privileges that remain out of reach for them. 

Albania, under strongman Edi Rama, is playing a different game – offshoring Italy’s asylum system in exchange for goodwill and basking in recent EPC attention. Democratic backsliding remains a concern. “We don’t get stronger if we abandon our values,” Bjerre cautions, pointing to ongoing scrutiny of Albania’s recent elections. 

Our police escort helps us race to the airport as the two-day diplomatic tour de force comes to an end. If enlargement is a geopolitical game, the cityscape suggests the Balkans want to play ball.  

EU flags line the exits – but whether that road leads to membership or just another dead end may depend on how geopolitical the Union is willing to be. 

The Balkans are dressing for a future they’ve already chosen. 

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