The news: Oil prices surged after CNN reported that the US had obtained new intelligence suggesting Israel is making preparations to strike Iranian nuclear facilities.
The intelligence includes intercepted Israeli communications and observations of Israeli military movements, including the movement of air munitions and the completion of an air exercise, according to the report, which cited unnamed officials
The numbers: West Texas Intermediate futures surged as much as 3.5% to $64.19 a barrel on the back of the report, following a week of volatility on mixed headlines about the fate of Iran-US talks, Bloomberg reported.
The context: Officials cautioned that Israeli leaders have not made a final decision on a strike, and there is deep disagreement within the US government about the likelihood of action, CNN reported.
A source familiar with US intelligence told the outlet “the chance of an Israeli strike on an Iranian nuclear facility has gone up significantly,” particularly if a Trump-negotiated deal does not remove all of Iran’s uranium.
A 60-day deadline for talks imposed by Donald Trump has passed with no agreement reached. Iran insists on its right to enrich uranium, while US special envoy Steve Witkoff has said Washington “cannot allow even 1% of an enrichment capability”.
Israel sees a window of opportunity due to Iran’s weakened military and economy, and an Israeli source told CNN that Israel would be prepared to act alone if the US were to negotiate a deal with Iran it cannot accept.