What a shame that a line chart about Elon Musk is considered “beautiful data”. This sub has fallen so far.
Minor grid lines would’ve been nice. Also i think just having points instead of gaps in years would look nicer to show that there isn’t data for some years.
You can make a chart that will show an estimated date of Mars mission over time. Like for 2011 it would be 2011+20=2031 and so on. That way we can see if it moves
Shouldve made year-year 1:1 for better understandability
Would be nice to give some sort of visual on how long ago relative to the prediction. Like predicting 5 years, more than 5 years ago, should be reflected in the chart. Maybe color code the data points for which predicted dates have already passed. Or maybe a comparison line with a slope of negative one, ending at the present. So if the chart goes to 2011, the comparison line would start at 14 years and go down by a year until it ends at zero in 2025. When the red Elon prediction line goes below my comparison line, he’s already missed that prediction.
he better be on the first one out please
Now do when Al Gore said the country would be underwater. Lol!
He is Dunning-Kruger personified
I think he should be the first monkey to lead the mission.
Idk, I don’t like that he’s making the statement less and less. SpaceX was the most inspiring company of my 20s, simply because its ambitions were beyond anyone else and I really want us to bring back the Space Race. I’ll be a sad old man if we don’t ever get to Mars in my lifetime
That’s a nice selection. I note you didn’t include his 2009 prediction of 2020. Or 2011’s prediction of 2021. Or 2012’s prediction of “10 or 15”.
His estimated time is shrinking by an average of 1.07 years per year.
(20 – 5)/(2025 – 2011) = 1.071428 estimated years per year
If only NASA had invented and made profitable some sort of manned launch and return system, or some sort of rocket that could go to Mars!
Everything spacex is doing, NASA already did it, they’re just trying to make more money off it.
If he keeps saying 5 years, by the time it happens he’ll be 5 years ahead of his prediction
It is great there is a visionary trying to do this.
There should be more.
Having a points would be nice, i am almost curious if he is like “i need to talk about mars every quoter, and ai girls everyday” or it is more like “mars week” and then come back to racism and drowing rich ppl in overpriced cars.
With each year there is less Elon and more ketamine, but still curious to see the patern.
Coming off the Great Recession and the years following it, Elon was still sucking on the govt. tit handouts pretty hard. It makes sense that he would sell himself as the savior of humanity.
Would be good to see it plotted against some sort of consensus estimate from actual scientists. But I’m guessing scientific consensus trends towards “why send people?”
If someone wants to make a more boring graph then plot out his claim when “full self driving” and fully automatic Tesla will be here.
“next year” repeated since 2016 if I remember correctly
21 comments
R3 Sources:
2011 [https://www.space.com/12519-spacex-mars-colony-dragon-falcon-heavy.html](https://www.space.com/12519-spacex-mars-colony-dragon-falcon-heavy.html)
2012 [https://newatlas.com/date-set-for-spacex-dragon-launch/20810/](https://newatlas.com/date-set-for-spacex-dragon-launch/20810/)
2014 [https://www.extremetech.com/extreme/184640-spacex-says-it-will-put-humans-on-mars-by-2026-almost-10-years-ahead-of-nasa](https://www.extremetech.com/extreme/184640-spacex-says-it-will-put-humans-on-mars-by-2026-almost-10-years-ahead-of-nasa)
2015 [https://www.theguardian.com/science/2015/feb/09/mars-one-mission-a-one-way-trip-to-the-red-planet-in-2024](https://www.theguardian.com/science/2015/feb/09/mars-one-mission-a-one-way-trip-to-the-red-planet-in-2024)
2016 [https://www.astronomy.com/space-exploration/spacex-lays-out-a-roadmap-to-getting-humans-to-mars-in-a-decade/](https://www.astronomy.com/space-exploration/spacex-lays-out-a-roadmap-to-getting-humans-to-mars-in-a-decade/)
2017 [https://www.theguardian.com/science/video/2017/sep/29/elon-musk-manned-mars-mission-spacex-video](https://www.theguardian.com/science/video/2017/sep/29/elon-musk-manned-mars-mission-spacex-video)
2018 [https://www.inverse.com/article/49244-elon-musk-predicts-when-spacex-will-build-its-first-base-on-mars](https://www.inverse.com/article/49244-elon-musk-predicts-when-spacex-will-build-its-first-base-on-mars)
2020 [https://www.space.com/spacex-launch-astronauts-mars-2024](https://www.space.com/spacex-launch-astronauts-mars-2024)
2021 [https://www.space.com/elon-musk-mars-spacex-risks-astronauts-die](https://www.space.com/elon-musk-mars-spacex-risks-astronauts-die)
2022 [https://www.npr.org/2022/03/17/1087167893/elon-musk-mars-2029](https://www.npr.org/2022/03/17/1087167893/elon-musk-mars-2029)
2024 [https://www.space.com/spacex-starship-mars-launches-2026-elon-musk](https://www.space.com/spacex-starship-mars-launches-2026-elon-musk)
2025 [https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cx2g88y52y8o](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cx2g88y52y8o)
What a shame that a line chart about Elon Musk is considered “beautiful data”. This sub has fallen so far.
Minor grid lines would’ve been nice. Also i think just having points instead of gaps in years would look nicer to show that there isn’t data for some years.
You can make a chart that will show an estimated date of Mars mission over time. Like for 2011 it would be 2011+20=2031 and so on. That way we can see if it moves
Shouldve made year-year 1:1 for better understandability
Would be nice to give some sort of visual on how long ago relative to the prediction. Like predicting 5 years, more than 5 years ago, should be reflected in the chart. Maybe color code the data points for which predicted dates have already passed. Or maybe a comparison line with a slope of negative one, ending at the present. So if the chart goes to 2011, the comparison line would start at 14 years and go down by a year until it ends at zero in 2025. When the red Elon prediction line goes below my comparison line, he’s already missed that prediction.
he better be on the first one out please
Now do when Al Gore said the country would be underwater. Lol!
He is Dunning-Kruger personified
I think he should be the first monkey to lead the mission.
Idk, I don’t like that he’s making the statement less and less. SpaceX was the most inspiring company of my 20s, simply because its ambitions were beyond anyone else and I really want us to bring back the Space Race. I’ll be a sad old man if we don’t ever get to Mars in my lifetime
That’s a nice selection. I note you didn’t include his 2009 prediction of 2020. Or 2011’s prediction of 2021. Or 2012’s prediction of “10 or 15”.
His estimated time is shrinking by an average of 1.07 years per year.
(20 – 5)/(2025 – 2011) = 1.071428 estimated years per year
If only NASA had invented and made profitable some sort of manned launch and return system, or some sort of rocket that could go to Mars!
Everything spacex is doing, NASA already did it, they’re just trying to make more money off it.
If he keeps saying 5 years, by the time it happens he’ll be 5 years ahead of his prediction
It is great there is a visionary trying to do this.
There should be more.
Having a points would be nice, i am almost curious if he is like “i need to talk about mars every quoter, and ai girls everyday” or it is more like “mars week” and then come back to racism and drowing rich ppl in overpriced cars.
With each year there is less Elon and more ketamine, but still curious to see the patern.
Coming off the Great Recession and the years following it, Elon was still sucking on the govt. tit handouts pretty hard. It makes sense that he would sell himself as the savior of humanity.
Year | prediction | predicted year | trend
—|—|—|—
2011 | 20 | 2031 | –
2012 | 20 | 2032 | +1
2013 | – | – | –
2014 | 12 | 2026 | -6
2015 | 9 | 2024 | -2
2016 | 9 | 2025 | +1
2017 | 7 | 2024 | -1
2018 | 6 | 2024 | ±0
2019 | – | – | –
2020 | 6 | 2026 | +2
2021 | 5 | 2026 | ±0
2022 | 7 | 2029 | +3
2023 | – | – | –
2024 | 4 | 2028 | -1
2025 | 6 | 2031 | +3
Well, he is back to his original guess of 2031.
Would be good to see it plotted against some sort of consensus estimate from actual scientists. But I’m guessing scientific consensus trends towards “why send people?”
If someone wants to make a more boring graph then plot out his claim when “full self driving” and fully automatic Tesla will be here.
“next year” repeated since 2016 if I remember correctly
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