In an increasingly contested orbital domain, a recent series of maneuvers by a Russian satellite near a critical U.S. government asset has significantly heightened international concerns.

This activity is sparking renewed fears that Moscow may be developing and deploying co-orbital anti-satellite (ASAT) weapons, despite Russia’s consistent claims that these spacecraft are intended solely for space monitoring and inspection.

Russia’s orbital activity prompts scrutiny 

According to U.S. Space Command, a recently launched Russian satellite has entered an orbit near a U.S. government spacecraft. The agency noted that Russia continues to pursue a range of counterspace capabilities that pose risks to the safety and stability of the space domain. As with all objects in orbit, U.S. Space Command says it will closely monitor the satellite for any potentially concerning behavior, Breaking Defense reports.

The Russian satellite Cosmos 2588, launched on May 23, was placed in a coplanar orbit with USA 338 — a satellite widely believed to be part of the National Reconnaissance Office’s KH-series electro-optical surveillance network, known as the Crystal constellation.

Independent satellite tracker Bart Hendrix was the first to report the launch and orbital characteristics of Cosmos 2588 on the NASA SpaceFlight Forum, a hub where space enthusiasts and amateur astronomers collaborate to analyze new satellite activity. Dutch astronomer Marco Langbroek later noted on the forum that the satellite appears to be following a trajectory similar to two earlier Cosmos missions, indicating it may have been purpose-built as an anti-satellite (ASAT) platform.

Recent Russian Cosmos satellites differ from the U.S. military’s mobile GSSAP spacecraft, which maneuver to inspect others in orbit. Instead, these Russian satellites remain largely fixed in position, closely shadowing U.S. government satellites thought to belong to the KH-series reconnaissance fleet.

Tracking data suggests satellite may carry kinetic weapon

U.S. satellite tracking company Slingshot Aerospace shared a tracking image of Cosmos 2588 on LinkedIn Thursday. Based on open-source data from Seradata, Cosmos 2588 is believed to be a NIVELIR military inspection satellite potentially equipped with a kinetic weapon. The satellite appears to be focused on USA 338, which lacks publicly available orbital data. Slingshot suggests that Cosmos 2588 may be tracking this uncatalogued, co-orbital U.S. satellite.

A spokesperson from Slingshot Aerospace told Breaking Defense that in its current orbit, Cosmos 2588 will come within approximately 58 miles of its target. Because the satellites operate at different altitudes and are not expected to maneuver further, they will pass close to each other about every four days, resulting in repeated fly-bys.

Slingshot Aerospace is closely monitoring Cosmos 2558 and Cosmos 2576—both linked to suspected anti-satellite capabilities—and will keep watch on Cosmos 2588 for any signs of secondary payload deployment. Although the company hasn’t detailed why it suspects Cosmos 2588 could be a weapon, past patterns have made Western astronomers increasingly cautious.

According to Langbroek, the launch of Cosmos 2588 marks the fourth time in five years that a Russian military satellite has been placed in a co-orbital path with a U.S. optical reconnaissance satellite. Previous cases include Kosmos 2542/2543 with USA 245, Kosmos 2558 with USA 326, and Kosmos 2576 with USA 314. While the first incident resembled an inspector mission, the more recent patterns suggest a possible strategy of positioning dormant co-orbital anti-satellite weapons.