Submission Statement: With the advent of second Trump administration in the US, Putin is on the cusp of realizing long-sought success of most, if not all of his concerted efforts since 2014.
The US establishment including the incumbent Trump administration, is unlikely to allow Russia to impose hegemony on Europe, it is also important to point out that for the US currently, the Indo-Pacific region is a first order priority considering China’s rise in this region and its intention to surpass the US as a pre-eminent power.
Considering Russia’s failure to takeover Ukraine completely and its enormous losses throughout its ongoing war with the latter, Europe cannot be a first order priority for the US from security perspective.
However, Russia has also been strategically improving its relations with China thereby creating avenues for itself to create problems for the US in the Indo-Pacific.
Now, from the US’ perspective, Sino-Russian alliance is as much a danger to its pre-eminence in the world as is Russian hegemony over Europe, and therein lies the answer to why Trump is trying to improve relations with Russia.
By improving relations with Russia, Trump intends to pull Russia away from China and for that he has to provide economic incentives to Putin, as ever since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 and ensuing Western sanctions against Russia, the Russian economy has been increasingly becoming dependent on trade with China to remain afloat.
So, taking into consideration the high likelihood of restoration of economic ties with the US under Trump administration, and probably up to some extent the West in total, some peacetime could prove useful for Putin to prepare for his next round of aggression against Europe at geopolitically more favorable time, while also reducing Russian dependence on China for its economic survival.
Therefore, this is the most convenient time for Putin to bring his war in Ukraine to a pause, as with Trump being at the helm of US’ state of affairs, he can do so, on terms that are conducive to his geostrategic ambitions for Russia in the long run.
I doubt the US will be able to pull Russia away from China, when the two nations border each other and have a vested interest in supporting each other, as both are authoritarian and wish to change the post WW2 order.
The only way I could see the above scenario working out, is if Russia grows increasingly wary of Chinese influence in Siberia and sees the USA as a fellow Christian nationalist nation.
3 comments
Submission Statement: With the advent of second Trump administration in the US, Putin is on the cusp of realizing long-sought success of most, if not all of his concerted efforts since 2014.
The US establishment including the incumbent Trump administration, is unlikely to allow Russia to impose hegemony on Europe, it is also important to point out that for the US currently, the Indo-Pacific region is a first order priority considering China’s rise in this region and its intention to surpass the US as a pre-eminent power.
Considering Russia’s failure to takeover Ukraine completely and its enormous losses throughout its ongoing war with the latter, Europe cannot be a first order priority for the US from security perspective.
However, Russia has also been strategically improving its relations with China thereby creating avenues for itself to create problems for the US in the Indo-Pacific.
Now, from the US’ perspective, Sino-Russian alliance is as much a danger to its pre-eminence in the world as is Russian hegemony over Europe, and therein lies the answer to why Trump is trying to improve relations with Russia.
By improving relations with Russia, Trump intends to pull Russia away from China and for that he has to provide economic incentives to Putin, as ever since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 and ensuing Western sanctions against Russia, the Russian economy has been increasingly becoming dependent on trade with China to remain afloat.
So, taking into consideration the high likelihood of restoration of economic ties with the US under Trump administration, and probably up to some extent the West in total, some peacetime could prove useful for Putin to prepare for his next round of aggression against Europe at geopolitically more favorable time, while also reducing Russian dependence on China for its economic survival.
Therefore, this is the most convenient time for Putin to bring his war in Ukraine to a pause, as with Trump being at the helm of US’ state of affairs, he can do so, on terms that are conducive to his geostrategic ambitions for Russia in the long run.
I doubt the US will be able to pull Russia away from China, when the two nations border each other and have a vested interest in supporting each other, as both are authoritarian and wish to change the post WW2 order.
The only way I could see the above scenario working out, is if Russia grows increasingly wary of Chinese influence in Siberia and sees the USA as a fellow Christian nationalist nation.
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