Norstat polling data available here: https://norstat.co/markets/united-kingdom/political-polls

Please note this is looking at subsamples, so take with a grain of salt. This will only be indicative, not gospel.

by backupJM

15 comments
  1. The most recent poll undertaken in Scotland has released its polling tables, so I explored them to see where the reform vote was growing. However, I’ve noted above and in the graphic that these are small subsamples, so take with a pinch of salt, they will only be an indication rather than provide a proper depth understanding.

    I’ve linked the tables above. Happy to answer any questions if my layout is confusing you.

    A screenshot of the tables I explored below:

    https://preview.redd.it/pk16hab45b5f1.jpeg?width=2122&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=27306003c4230e4cb975ccaacfd3efbc0af1205e

  2. Interesting to see how many Reform voters have defected from Labour and the Tories.

    Always thought the “Voters abandoning SNP for Reform” narrative was a bit sus.

    Age bracket tracks though, elder millennial and Gen X contrarians/”libertarians” accurately describes the Reform voters I know.

  3. Seems reform have captured the tank commanders votes

  4. It appears from that small subsample, the majority of the Reform vote is coming from older, “traditional” Unionist voters.

  5. I wonder how much of this is driven by people shifting their vote to the dominant pro union party? It’s a very odd swap to make for Labour and Lib Dem voters if you were to look at most other areas of policy yet there are not insignificant numbers making that swap.

  6. Makes sense ‘difficult issues’ parties/controversial stances tend to appeal to men. Just something I’ve picked up over the years- men tend to argue on logic/data and women are more emotion driven. Plus men tend to be more security focused.

    How this plays out in politics, a man would say ‘men from this country are more likely statistically to rape/abuse women because of their backward culture so we should heavily curtail this people from immigrating here’, whereas a woman would say ‘but they are not all like that’ (both points are technically true).

  7. Findlay really is the final nail for the Jock Tories. It’s only going to get worse for them, we can all hope. Labour still in decline and Sarwar and SLab are still not fit to govern.

  8. Pretty much exactly who I would expect. Middle aged, NO+Leave voters.

  9. Zero surprises in that poll.

    Include religion in the criteria and that would confirm yet another known fact…

  10. Exactly what people were saying in other threads earlier, to be met with downvotes. No reasoning with some of the idiotic takes you get on this sub.

  11. Just to highlight, these percentages are relative. So 7% of 2021 SNP voters is about the same absolute number as 16% 2021 Labour voters. So a decent chunk of Reform’s current support is coming from SNP as much as Labour.

    It’s also worth noting that other polls have the percentage of 2021 SNP voters going to Reform somewhat higher in their crosstabs (~10%).

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