After overcoming Germany and Spain in the semifinals, Portugal and Spain face off in Germany in the Final of this season’s UEFA Nations League.
PP football tipster Sam Farley‘s got five picks for us here, three of which are covered by Paddy’s Super Sub offer, meaning if the player is substituted, the pick carries over to his replacement.
Let’s get in Portugal v Spain betting tips.
Portugal v Spain Bet Builder tips
Spain to win
Lamine Yamal to score or assist
Lamine Yamal to be fouled 2+ times
Portugal to commit 12+ fouls
Bernardo Silva to be shown a card
WHEN: Sunday, 8th of June, 8pm
WHERE: The Allianz Arena, Munich
TV: Amazon Prime
Spain to win
Portugal might come into this with an extra day’s rest but it’s Spain who are favourites and rightly so. Portugal did well to beat Germany but the hosts were poor, and they failed to rack up double digits shots despite having 55% possession. You’d have to expect Spain to be far more efficient in attacking areas than Germany were on Wednesday night.
France almost managed to get back into the game on Thursday, with Spain nearly blowing a 4-1 lead as the game finished 5-4. That needs to be written off as a team who got complacent having such a large lead over France, in a game that they truly dominated.
Right now Spain are the best team on the planet and have gone 19 games since they were last beaten, picking up last summer’s Euros 2024 trophy in the process. On Sunday night they should pick up more silverware as they continue to heat up ahead of next year’s World Cup.
Lamine Yamal to score or assist
How is Lamine Yamal just 17 years old? It’s getting to the point that there’s not much more than can be said about the Barcelona youngster but every time you watch him play he just looks better.
He’s on a fast track to the top and will surely win a Balon d’Or in the coming years. His dribbling ability and speed are terrifying for defenders and he’s dangerous on either foot.
He’s had a strong season at domestic level with 18 goals and 16 assists in La Liga for his club and he’s continued that into this international break, scoring twice against France on Thursday. It’s now five goals and an assist in his past five games for club and country and you can’t bet against the youngster doing it again this weekend.
Lamine Yamal to be fouled 2+ times
We’re doubling down on Yamal and backing the superstar to be fouled two or more times. This season he’s been the most fouled player in a talented and very tricky Barcelona team, getting taken down 1.89 times per 90 minutes played in La Liga. The scary thing is that he keeps getting better by the week.
Like many opposing teams this season the French couldn’t find a way to stop him within the rules in the semi-final and they resorted to kicking him. He won four fouls in that, second only to Mikel Merino (5) on his team and given his threat, we’re likely to see him targeted again here.
Portugal to commit 12+ fouls
We’re expecting Yamal to get fouled multiple times in this game and we should see Portugal rack up 12 fouls at the very least. We need to preface this by saying that the Portuguese only gave up 10 fouls against Germany but that team was missing some of their trickiest players, such as Jamal Musiala, and the Spanish present a far tougher, and scarier, opposition.
France looked shell-shocked against Spain, at least until they pulled themselves together, and they gave up 14 fouls in total.
Spain are a team built to win fouls, with a midfield three that are capable of playing keep-ball and frustrating teams, and then two stellar talents on the flanks in Yamal and Nico Williams, both quick players with exceptional dribbling ability, which invites fouls. There’s silverware on the line here, and Portugal will do whatever it takes to shut down Spain’s danger men.
Bernardo Silva to be shown a card
There are a number of players on the Portuguese team who offer a great card threat.
We know Bruno Fernandes always runs that tightrope, and Ruben Neves, should he start this game, could do the same, but it’s Bernardo Silva who offers the best value proposition. The Man City man should start, either in the midfield three or pushed further forward to accommodate Vitinha returning to the starting lineup.
He’s picked up 10 yellow cards for his club this season and throughout the years has become a real master at the professional foul, and is never afraid to pick up a card if it’s of benefit to his team.
Portugal cannot let Spain, and their pace, hit them on the counter, so it’ll be up to their players in the middle of the park to stop those attacks by any means necessary. Silva’s brain is still as quick as ever, but he’s not hugely athletic and could struggle against some of Spain’s quickest and more dynamic players.
Portugal v Spain betting tips
Spain to win
Lamine Yamal to score or assist
Lamine Yamal to be fouled 2+ times
Portugal to commit 12+ fouls
Bernardo Silva to be shown a card
*All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.
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