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Jobless claims hold steady
The Labor Department said Thursday that initial jobless claims held steady at 248,000 in the week ending June 7, higher than the 242,000 economists expected.
The four-week moving average rose by 5,000 to 240,250. “This is the highest level for this average since August 26, 2023 when it was 245,000,” according to the Labor Department.
Bill Adams, chief economist at Comerica, says that while this report shows the labor market is softening, the data are not so clear-cut.
“While the Department of Labor tries to adjust the claims data for seasonal variations, that’s easier said than done,” Adams notes. “Initial and continued claims are up from the spring, but both rose from spring to summer in 2023 and 2024 as well.”
The difference between now and then, the economist explains, is that in 2025, folks who have lost their jobs are having a harder time finding a new one.
– Karee Venema
What is the FOMC meeting schedule?
The Federal Open Market Committee meets eight times a year, or about once every six weeks. The FOMC is required to meet at least four times a year and may convene additional meetings if necessary.
The convention of meeting eight times per year dates back to the market stresses of 1981.
FOMC meetings last two days and conclude with the committee releasing its policy decision at 2 pm Eastern time. The Fed chair then holds a press conference at 2:30 pm.
Pro tip: As closely scrutinized as the FOMC statement might be, market participants are usually even more keen on what the Federal Reserve chair has to say in the press conference.
Read more: When Is the Next Fed Meeting?
Wholesale prices rose less than expected in May
Wall Street continues to be met with encouraging inflation data, indicating that President Trump’s aggressive tariff policies have yet to impact price growth.
Ahead of Thursday’s open, data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed that the Producer Price Index (PPI), which measures what businesses are paying suppliers for goods, was up 0.1% month over month in May.
While this was quicker than the revised 0.2% decline seen in April, it was slower than the 0.2% rise economists expected.
Year over year, wholesale prices rose 2.6%, in line with expectations.
Core PPI, which excludes volatile food and energy costs, was up 0.1% on a monthly basis and 3.0% higher year over year.
Economists had called for core PPI to increase 0.3% and 3.1% monthly and yearly, respectively.
These soft back-to-back readings on inflation give “the Fed room to sit on their hands,” says Chris Zaccarelli, chief investment officer for Northlight Asset Management.
“As long as inflation isn’t increasing – or even better, is decreasing – the Fed can be patient and wait for more information on how the new tariffs and trade negotiations are going to impact the price stability part of their dual mandate later this year,” he adds.
– Karee Venema
Who gets to vote on Fed policy?
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), which is the Federal Reserve’s policy-setting group, has 12 members, eight permanent and four who rotate each year.
The eight permanent voting committee members include the Fed chair and vice chair, the five Fed governors and the president of the New York Fed.
Four regional Fed presidents are rotated in each calendar year.
The 2025 FOMC voting committee consists of:
Fed Chair Jerome PowellVice Chair Philip JeffersonFed Governor Michael BarrFed Governor Michelle BowmanFed Governor Lisa CookFed Governor Adriana KuglerFed Governor Christopher WallerNew York Fed President John WilliamsBoston Fed President Susan CollinsChicago Fed President Austan GoolsbeeSt. Louis Fed President Alberto MusalemKansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid
In 2026, the presidents from Cleveland, Philadelphia, Dallas and Minneapolis will rotate in as FOMC voting members, according to the Federal Reserve.
– Karee Venema
How long will we have to wait for a Fed rate cut?
The Federal Reserve is not going to change rates at its June 17-18 meeting next week. In fact, don’t expect the central bank to make any adjustments until maybe its October meeting.
The Fed wants to know how tariffs are affecting both inflation and the economy. Until the impact is clearer, the Fed will wait.
Yes, that raises the risk that the Fed will act too late, but it may be better to wait at the crosswalk than to look the wrong way crossing the street.
– David Payne
David Payne
Staff Economist, The Kiplinger Letter
David is both staff economist and reporter for The Kiplinger Letter, overseeing Kiplinger forecasts for the U.S. and world economies. Previously, he was senior principal economist in the Center for Forecasting and Modeling at IHS/GlobalInsight, and an economist in the Chief Economist’s Office of the U.S. Department of Commerce.
When is Jerome Powell’s term as Fed chair up?
Despite President Trump’s innuendos that he would like to fire Fed Chair Jerome Powell, the Supreme Court has suggested that it would oppose such an action.
Indeed, Trump in April used his Truth Social platform to call for Powell’s termination, while an April 17 report in The Wall Street Journal discussed private meetings where the president expressed his desire to remove the Fed chair from his post.
Nevertheless, the question of whether or not Trump can fire Powell is seemingly moot given that his term as Fed chair is up in less than a year from now – on May 15, 2026.
It’s unlikely that those in Trump’s inner circle will encourage him to disrupt the status quo – and likely send stocks and bonds tumbling – when Powell has such a small amount of time left in his term.
For what it’s worth, Powell’s term as a member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve ends on January 31, 2028.
– Karee Venema
The labor market remains resilient
The Federal Reserve has a dual mandate of price stability and maximum employment – and both sides appear to be on solid footing at the moment.
Indeed, while the May Consumer Price Index signaled progress on the inflation front, the most recent jobs report showed a resilient labor market.
According to the Labor Department, the U.S. added 139,000 new jobs last month, more than economists expected. And while figures for March and April were revised down, the unemployment rate remained at a historically low 4.2%.
“It’s clear that the economy remains resilient, with the job market holding up well,” said Chris Zaccarelli, chief investment officer at Northlight Asset Management.
The CIO added that the Fed “should be reluctant to cut rates because the full effects of tariffs haven’t impacted inflation numbers yet and the job market isn’t deteriorating enough to force their hand.”
– Karee Venema
President Trump’s tariff policies have yet to impact inflation
Inflation eased more than expected in May, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Headline CPI was up 0.1% month over month in May, slower than April’s 0.2% rise and the 0.2% increase economists expected.
The CPI was 2.4% higher year over year, slightly higher than the 2.3% increase seen the month prior and in line with economists’ projections.
Shelter was the “primary factor” for the increase in headline CPI, according to BLS, up 0.3% on the month. Energy costs, meanwhile, were down 1% in May as gas prices declined.
Core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices and is seen as a better measure of underlying inflation trends, was up 0.1% from April to May and 2.8% year over year. Economists expected 0.3% and 2.9% increases, respectively.
The May CPI report, alongside news that the U.S. and China have reached a trade deal, is doing little to move the needle on rate-cut expectations.
According to CME FedWatch, futures traders are pricing in a 99.9% chance the central bank will hold rates steady, with the first quarter-point rate cut not expected until September.
– Karee Venema
Karee Venema
Senior investing editor, Kiplinger.com
With over a decade of experience writing about the stock market, Karee Venema is the senior investing editor at Kiplinger.com. She joined the publication in April 2021, and oversees a wide range of investing coverage, including content focused on equities, fixed income, mutual funds, ETFs, macroeconomics and more.