The Real Threat From Iran: Tehran’s Most Dangerous Option for Responding to Israel

6 comments

1. [SS from the essay by Kenneth M. Pollack, Vice President for Policy at the Middle East Institute, a former CIA Persian Gulf military analyst, and former Director for Persian Gulf Affairs at the National Security Council.]

   Last night, the government of Israel decided to roll the dice on a military solution to Iran’s decades-long pursuit of a nuclear weapons capability. Given the remarkable capabilities of the Israel Defense Forces, the operation could do tremendous damage to the Iranian nuclear program. But then comes the hard part.

   Iran has limited options to respond directly. The danger, however, is that Israel has opened a Pandora’s box: the worst Iranian response might also be the most likely, a decision to withdraw from its arms control commitments and build nuclear weapons in earnest. Containing those furies over the long term is likely to be the real challenge for both Israel and the United States. If the two parties fail, the Israeli gamble could ensure a nuclear-armed Iran rather than preventing one.

2. Iran options are getting more limited,Hezbollah even been warned by the Lebanese government that the days of Hezbollah raising proxy war on Israel for Iran is over., pulling out of a treaty it never took serious is a joke btw , Israel just severely neutralized Iran capabilities and knowledge to make nukes, Iran also losing Syria to Turkish sphere of influence (with Israeli ties now) was key in crippling Iran options too in the region for retaliation.

3. Honestly seems like a good move from a geopolitical perspective. Israel is demonstrating this offensive isn’t just about Palestinians, but is actually about their own safety. By going after the source of support for groups like Hezbollah and Hamas, it makes it clearer that their goal is to get other country’s to stop messing with them. If you’ve shot a rocket at Israel in the last 80 years or sold them that rocket, I feel bad for you. They are coming for you.

4. This article seems to miss that Israel’s goal here is to remove Iran’s ability to make nukes from a practical sense, and less than 24 hours in they seem pretty well poised to get that done.

   That’s before we get into the fact that Mossad has clearly infiltrated Iran to the point where they don’t need weapons inspectors authorized by treaty. Israel may well have a clearer picture of the Iranian nuclear program than Khamani does at this point, assuming Khamani is getting briefings in whatever mountain bunker he’s fled to, and that the person giving him the briefings isn’t Mossad.

5. If Iran achieves a nuclear weapon without a delivery mechanism, Israel may conclude that a nuclear attack on its own territory is inevitable and launch a preemptive strike with its own arsenal. Then, the world would have to contend with the ramifications of limited nuclear war in the Middle East, which is the true nightmare scenario.

6. Yeah pretty much what I’ve said for awhile.

   This pretty much guarantees that Iran gets a nuke, and they will get it with Russia, China, Pakistan and North Korea’s help.

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