Quick overview
WTI crude futures hit $74.10 this week, up for the second day in a row as geopolitical tensions threatened to disrupt energy flows from a major oil producing region. A production halt at a key gas platform in the Persian Gulf only added to the supply worries and sent prices to their highest since January.
Friday was especially wild—crude jumped 13% intraday and closed 7% higher as fears of a wider conflict that could impact infrastructure and global shipping routes. Traders are bracing for volatility as the situation remains fluid and energy markets are super sensitive to every headline.
And to add to the uncertainty, trade policy out of Washington is cloudy. The US administration is talking about changing the tariff structure and the China negotiations are going nowhere. All this is amplifying the bid for energy assets in an already tight market.
WTI Crude Oil Technical Setup: $72.15 Is the Line in the Sand
From a charting perspective, crude is holding at $72.91 after a vertical move from $66.72. The current price is right above the 50% Fibonacci retracement at $72.15, a short term support.
The latest candles are showing indecision with long wicks as profit taking and buying are fighting each other. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 71, still bullish but getting overbought.
Key levels to watch:
Immediate resistance: $73.43 (38.2% Fib), then $75.02
Immediate support: $72.15, then $70.87 and $69.04
A clean break above $73.43 could see a retest of $75+, while failure to hold $72.15 could see a deeper pullback.
What to Watch Next
With geopolitical risk still present and technicals flashing both strength and caution, crude’s next move will depend on if the bulls can hold or if the market cools off. Watch for volume and RSI divergence at resistance. Until then, price action will be choppy but full of opportunity for those who are watching the levels and news.
Arslan Butt
Lead Markets Analyst – Multi-Asset (FX, Commodities, Crypto)
Arslan Butt serves as the Lead Commodities and Indices Analyst, bringing a wealth of expertise to the field. With an MBA in Behavioral Finance and active progress towards a Ph.D., Arslan possesses a deep understanding of market dynamics.
His professional journey includes a significant role as a senior analyst at a leading brokerage firm, complementing his extensive experience as a market analyst and day trader. Adept in educating others, Arslan has a commendable track record as an instructor and public speaker.
His incisive analyses, particularly within the realms of cryptocurrency and forex markets, are showcased across esteemed financial publications such as ForexCrunch, InsideBitcoins, and EconomyWatch, solidifying his reputation in the financial community.
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