Will Iran Shut Down The Strait Of Hormuz?

https://www.twz.com/news-features/could-iran-carry-out-its-threat-to-shut-the-strait-of-hormuz

Posted by Nerdslayer2

24 comments

  1. The possibility of Iran shutting down the Strait of Hormuz is a critical question with far-reaching implications for the global economy. Roughly a fifth of the world’s oil passes through this narrow waterway, and any disruption could send energy markets into chaos.

    In the context of escalating tensions between Israel and Iran, the risk of closure seems increasingly plausible. Israel’s long-term goal appears to be regime change in Iran, and it is unlikely to accept any agreement that leaves Iran with the capacity to develop nuclear weapons. On the other hand, Iran, having seen what happens when agreements are undermined or abandoned, may now believe that developing nuclear weapons is essential to ensure regime survival. This dynamic makes de-escalation extremely difficult.

    If Israel finds it difficult to directly eliminate the Iranian regime, it may resort to crippling Iran economically by targeting its oil infrastructure. If these strikes significantly reduce Iran’s ability to export oil, Tehran may reason that closing the Strait of Hormuz won’t cost them much more—and it could force international actors to pressure Israel to halt its campaign. Alternatively, if Iran senses its regime is on the brink of collapse, it may attempt to shut the strait as a last-ditch effort to draw global attention and intervention.

    However, there are strong counterarguments. Iran depends on the Strait of Hormuz for its own vital imports, including food and refined petroleum products. Shutting it down would further damage its already fragile economy. Iran also has to consider China—a major Iranian trading partner and oil buyer—who would strongly oppose any disruption to global energy flows. Furthermore, closing the strait would almost certainly invite military retaliation from the United States, which has long viewed the free flow of Gulf oil as a vital strategic interest.

    So, will Iran actually shut down the Strait of Hormuz? While it may seem like a desperate but logical option in a worst-case scenario, the strategic costs are enormous. That said, if the stakes for the Iranian regime become existential, desperation may outweigh caution.

  2. Given the current state of affairs for Iran, any projection of power is going to be quite difficult for them to achieve. They can threaten to close the Straight all they want but realistically that’s not going to be possible. Now they can make things difficult for those transiting the Straight by mining it and harassing vessels but at this point closing it entirely is out of the question.

  3. My two cents is US won’t join the war because Iran has the potential to shut down the straight and seriously disrupt the US economy. Iran won’t attack the US or shut down the straight because they don’t want the US in the war which would definitely lead to regime change.

  4. Maybe briefly. Their navy can’t stand up to the IDF, and certainly not a US carrier strike group.

    Last time they tangled with the US Navy things did not go well for them.

  5. If they do it won’t be for long. There are many nations out there who will work together to clear it rapidly.

  6. They can’t defend their airspace, they definitely can’t shut down the straight if Hormuz.

  7. Israel controls most of the middle east arabs.

    They will not be happy if they cant sell their oil.

  8. i think for iran things are clear,

    1. get public support back after humiliation

    2. get back to normal, so to avoid war with us , or prolonged war with isreal

    but the objectives of israel are unclear, it seems they want to take down iran’s leadership and supreme leader no matter what

  9. When they could previously bring in their proxies AND close the Strait, that was a fairly considerable multifaceted threat. But their proxies have been nullified, and a sizable portion of their missile launchers, anti air defences and other strategic military hardware has been destroyed, and is being steadily whittled away by Israel’s bombing campaign.

    It really doesn’t stand out as the threat it used to because they are heavily weakened, and countering the closure doesn’t seem particularly hard. Israel has convincingly dominated them so far. A coalition of The US, NATO and Gulf allies it would appear would be more than capable of dealing with the attempted Iranian closure of the Strait.

    It wouldn’t seem like a rational move, drawing in more powerful enemies, when they are struggling to deal with the one they’re currently fighting. But then it’s not out of the realm of possibilities, because it could be said that Iran is headed by people whose motivations are not entirely rational and that ideology plays an important role.

  10. Iran: *Tries to close the Strait of Hormuz*

    Fat Electrician: “I guess they didn’t learn the first time.”

  11. I got a feeling if they try to shut down the strait they’ll incur the wrath of both a US and a UK Carrier Strike Group that’s parked in the Red Sea.

  12. Brotha they can’t even close the airspace in Tehran…..

  13. Won’t shutting down hormuz sort of hurt anyone except Israel?

    What would be the logic for Iran to do this.

    They need friendly neighbours, not pushing everyone into Israelis camp

  15. What would this accomplish aside from giving the US a written invitation to join Israel in going apeshit on Iran?

  16. If Israel keeps hitting their oil infrastructure I think it’s likely they’ll attempt to close it, assuming they have any mine layers left.

    If they stop hitting the oil infrastructure, Iran would likely keep it open as they can keep shipping oil out. China buys most of their oil and they just made a massive munitions purchase from them. They have incentive to keep that trade route open.

    It would also likely guarantee US involvement, something they don’t want.

  17. Have they ever successfully shut it down? I remember sailing through (USN) essentially as a big F U to Iran circa 2013 when they had allegedly mined the straits

  18. If Iran did that it would be a wonderful gift to Israel. It would unite the gulf states who are already not big fans of Iran with Israel as their interests will align, it will force America’s hand in getting involved, and likely remove all international pressure from Israel.

  19. Can they shut down the straight of Hormuz? I mean they don’t even control the sky above their own capital at the moment

  21. They are going be very picky about what they do and how they do it!

  22. There are two American carrier strike groups on the way. It’s not happening

  23. Can Iran do it? Yes. Will it last? No. It’d almost guarantee a US intervention, and could get the Gulf States involved as well.

  24. Iran’s only hope of existing as we know it in a year’s time is to keep this war from escalating beyond destruction of their nuclear facilities. Closing the strait would essentially be a declaration of war against everyone who relies on it, which includes both the US and China. Iran doesn’t want that smoke. If they think Israeli air supremacy is brutal, they should try fighting against the US and Chinese navies.

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