Senedd voting intention: June 2025 Find Out Now: 🟦 Reform UK: 29% (+28)
🟩 Plaid Cymru: 27% (+6)
🔴 Labour: 18% (-18)
🔵 Conservatives: 11% (-14)
🟠 Lib Dems: 7% (+3)
🟢 Greens: 7% (+3)

by Christian-Rep-Perisa

10 comments

  1. Get in! Love to see it.

    Looks like Plaid’s lead didn’t last long, but there’s not much in it. I expect this to flop back and forth a few times.

    Labour really are fucked this time around though. There’s a seismic change in Welsh politics on the horizon. One I never thought I’d see. No wonder Jeremy Miles told them to stuff it.

    I wonder what the majority of “Don’t Knows” are between? Reform and Tories maybe?

  2. Seats with these numbers

    🟦 Reform UK: 34 (+34)

    🟩 Plaid Cymru: 34 (+12)

    🔴 Labour: 19 (-27)

    🔵 Conservatives: 7 (-21)

    🟠 Lib Dems: 2 (+2)

    🟢 Greens: 0 (No Change)

  3. I’m still very hesitant around these polls. Polling ahead of the 2021 election vastly overstated the support for Abolish, and danger similar is happening here. The big question will be whether Reform voters actually turn out, and whether that Plaid vote share is ‘soft’.

  4. How would this work if those were the results today? Would plaid or reform need to work with another party to form a majority?

    It’s also disheartening to see people falling for Reform’s bullshit.

  5. As someone who still believes Labour are the best party for people in Wales (yes we exist), this one hurts.

    Whilst I don’t mind Plaid Cymru doing well at all, the prospect of reform getting a sniff of power fills me with an active sense of dread not felt since the result of a certain 2016 referendum.

  7. If Reform even get 1 seat it will be a disgrace, but why would we be surprised anymore?

  8. Facebook has done irreperable damage to Wales as a nation.

  9. There’s a possibility that Reform may do well in the Scottish/Welsh elections then get knocked back for the UK wide election 3 years later which will create an interesting dynamic

  10. Wales’ public opinion is teetering on a knife edge, and English Labour is just set on burning Welsh Labour as much as possible. I do not envy the position of any Welsh Labour seat holder, talk about getting it from both directions.

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