Why Isn’t Russia Defending Iran?

31 comments

1. Hanne Notte: “Iran is suffering blow after blow, and Russia, its most powerful supporter, is apparently not prepared to do much of anything about it. [https://theatln.tc/hqDeoKQ5](https://theatln.tc/hqDeoKQ5)

   “Not long ago, backing the West’s least-favorite power in the Middle East had its uses. In prosecuting his war of attrition in Ukraine, Vladimir Putin has made confrontation with the West the organizing principle of his foreign policy. In that context, edging closer to Iran and its partners in the “Axis of Resistance” made sense.

   “Tehran was also an important supplier: It delivered Shahed drones for Russian use in Ukraine at a moment when these were particularly crucial to Moscow’s war-fighting capacity. Then came the October 7 Hamas attack on Israel, followed by Israel’s brutal war in Gaza. Leaning into pro-Palestinian and anti-Western sentiment allowed Russia to score points with global public opinion.

   “But dynamics that initially seemed to benefit Russia quickly became a strategic headache. First, Israel devastated Iran’s partners Hamas and Hezbollah; then, in April and October 2024, Iran attacked Israel directly with strikes that yielded only minimal damage, suggesting that Iran’s missile capabilities were not all that formidable. Israel retaliated, impairing Iran’s missile production and air defenses, including its Russian-made S-300 missile systems. Suddenly, Iran looked weak, and Russia had a choice: It could shore up its Middle Eastern ally, or it could cut its losses in a troubled region.”

   Read more: [https://theatln.tc/hqDeoKQ5](https://theatln.tc/hqDeoKQ5)

2. Because Russia wants its neighbours and “allies” weak? There was like 5 Russia v Persia wars in last few centuries alone

3. I think Russia is fighting against some country already. What’s it called again

4. This is my view – 2 possible options

   Because they can’t… Like in Syria. Too bogged down in Ukraine to be able to do anything.

   Also possible a pact was made with Russia where America will slowly withdrawal support for Ukraine and block any new sanctions in return Russia will stay out of the Iran conflict.

5. Because Russia wants war in Middle East, wants to distract the world from Ukraine, wants high oil prices and wants another wave of refugees to boost their parties in Europe.

   If Russia defends Iran – what will it get? It will get a nuclear Iran, a country that doesn’t need or care about Russia in any way.

6. So much for the new Axis of evil lol

7. There is nothing they can do. They are still balls deep in Ukraine and the war has cost Russia A LOT of damage. They simply cannot afford another war. Also Russia has a ‘neutral’ relationship with Israel.

8. The easy answer is, “because they have no way to deliver force even if they had the military capability to spare.” The Black Sea fleet is bottled up (and I think Istanbul is still closed to belligerent transit), their only carrier is in drydock, and they’ve lost their Mediterranean port in Syria. Short of airlift or a very long land voyage (both risky targets), they don’t have a good way to get forces into Iran.

9. Russia has been getting a lot of weapons from Iran to begin with they’re not in a position to help.

10. How would they?

    They are struggling in Ukraine. How would they PROJECT power to Iran?

    Instability is driving up oil price which is helping them in the short term.

    This is hurting their drone purchases but.. they are fine just slowly griding ukraine.

    They would in turn be going up seasoned fighter pilots.. Russia is having difficulty enough flying next door.

11. They have no obligation too help. From their major deal in January, there is no mutual defense clause per Irans own request. Its a military cooperation deal only. Basically increase industrial integration, maybe some tech/labour sharing, exercises and intel.

    https://www.reuters.com/world/russia-iran-pact-will-not-include-mutual-defence-clause-tass-cites-iranian-envoy-2025-01-16/

    And Israel and Russia have fairly good relations. Just a few months ago Israel lobbies the US to pressure the new government in Syria to allow Russia to keep their bases there.

    And of course a major war in the Middle East benefits Russia in Ukraine. Less weapons for Ukraine, more for Israel. And comments about Russia losing its source for “Shaheds” are living in the past. They have long been produced in Russia on mass, and are hardly comparable to the original drones Iran’s sent/sends.

12. How would “Russia defending Iran” would even look like? Trading weapons? They are doing that regularly. Condemning Israel on the international stage? Doing that as well. What more? They will never sent troops for this…

13. Russia has reasonably good relations with Israel. It can get more out of allying with Israel than opposing it so it isn’t going to bat for Iran like it did for Assad.

14. It’s that old saying,  when you see your enemy making a mistake,  don’t do anything to stop them. 

    Plus, Joe Biden closed the supply road from russia to iran that Trump 1 created. 
     So it’s much more difficult for russia to send Iran weapons and nuke parts.

15. What is Russia practically expected to do ?
    The only major weapon system ordered was the SU-35. They are not yet delivered (Algeria has just got delivery) and it would take at least a year to properly induct them.

16. – They’re busy in Ukraine.
    – It will anger a U.S. administration that is absurdly appeasing towards Russia and reluctant to support Ukraine.
    – The situation in Iran became practically un-salvageable over night. It would be more effort than any potential gain if it can even be done at this point.
    – Iran is pretty unpopular with a lot of countries Russia may want to cooperate with on other things.

17. Do they have anything they can support Iran with, at this point?

18. Dafuq you think Tucker Carlson is doing right now? Russia doesn’t have a lot of leverage here, but they are doing what they can to attack it through GOP-media.

19. Russia has its hands full right now with the Ukraine. I also don’t know how they would benefit from it

20. Maybe because they can’t??

21. Russia can’t defeat a 3rd rate military with 2nd rate weapons. What are they going to do?

22. A lot of good points, some that are overlooked are as follows.

    As stated in other comments, Russia is neutral to Israel. It’s no secret that US is deeply embedded with Israel’s government. So this leaves an interesting situation for geopolitics.

    Russia wants a war in middle east to keep the US from further supporting Ukraine.

    Russia is also aware, that an open military support against Israel in the Middle East will likely drive Ukraine and Israel to the same table, in a more friendly manner then has so far happened.

    Russia is already struggling with insider attacks, Ukrainian sabotage operatives, a struggling civilian econ, and an unstable power balance in the Kremlin (Specifically the Oligarchs who benefit from the war and those that are being harmed by the war).

    Russia doesn’t want to risk further escalations on fronts it already struggles to stabalize, let alone with a country that specializes in covert acts of sabotage like Israel.

    So from a Rus stand point, foster a power conflict in the middle east, distract the western powers that support your opponent and seize that opportunity while you can. Iran is just an ally of convenience, not a real strategic partner.

    I’m confident that if things got hot along the 38th parallel, Russia wouldn’t step up to defend NK outside of shipments of goods to the country. But they sure would take advantage of the distraction and headaches it would cause for the US.

23. Because it’s waiting for US to join and after that it can prolong the war like USA has done using Ukraine as proxy

24. Not claiming this is for sure related, but possibly related:
    A lot of Russian oligarchs and Russian mafia are Jewish, with some having dual Israeli citizenship.

    https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.sajr.co.za/abramovich-joins-more-than-30-russian-jewish-tycoons-in-israel/amp/

    While the Russian government and Israeli government are not close allies and often butt heads, there are some strong connections between power brokers in Russia and Israel. For example, the most powerful mafia boss in the world, Simeon Moglivich, lives in Russian, but has an Israeli passport and used to live in Israel. Similar to many Russian oligarchs.

    Some deal may have been reached through unofficial channels.

25. If Russia was capable of intervening in the Middle East at this point they would have done so in Syria where the enemy did not have sophisticated weaponry and was not a nuclear state. They can’t.

26. Iran got played by its allies Hezbollah, Hamas, Houthis and Russia. North Korea can’t help much and China is only remaining real mvp; delivering drones to Russia/Ukraine and rocket fuel to Iran. US trade war with China might be the real nuke

27. They can’t even defend their homeland from Ukraine. They couldn’t defend another country from Israel if they wanted to.

28. for one, they might not really be able to without diverting major resources away from Ukraine.

    for another, if they officially enter on Iran’s side, they’re now in a shooting war with nuclear power Israel AND will have moved Ukraine completely in alignment with any nation supporting Israel. In a rational player world, that would result in more US assets being transferred to Ukraine, but the current US administration goes out of its way to make things easier on Russia so it may or may not shake out that way.

    But I’d imagine both Israel and Russia would prefer to not be in a shooting war with eachother, even though Russia has been arming Iran. Israel has a limited “first use” nuclear policy, and Russia’s nuclear stockpile, especially the silo based missile fleet, is a bit of a question in terms of its capability.

    Israel also has the F35s, which have proven to have the ability to evade Russian made air defenses almost entirely. Russia’s nuclear bomber fleet has also been severely crippled in recent Ukranian strikes. Yes Russia could probably retaliate with a nuclear submarine, but why get into a potential escalating conflict with a non nato nuclear power that could also wipe out most of western Russia if things got out of control?

    Its better to just let the proxy war distract the US into providing more support for Israel, which in turn means potentially fewer resources heading to Ukraine.

29. Because it can’t.

30. Russia dosent care. This war is not using any thing right now that would be going to ukraine. And Russia dosent have the capabiltys to do so there already tied up in ukraine. And there are all ways some tention between russia and iran because of the influcence that russia wants to have in armenia and azerbajian.

31. Because Russia is barely capable of defending itself

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