Collapse of Iranian regime could have unintended consequences for U.S. and Israel

17 comments

1. But the continuation of the Iranian regime has been such a net positive so far!

2. Yeah, I just don’t see how an attack on Iran would lead to the regime’s collapse—more likely, it would have the opposite effect due to the rally-around-the-flag phenomenon.

3. Submission statement: Regime change in Iran would be very difficult to put into practice, as there is no obvious alternative to the current administration. Any person or movement seen as connected to Netanyahu would be very unpopular, and Netanyahu’s adoption of the “Woman, Life, Freedom” slogan has harmed Iran’s opposition. Meanwhile the Iranian regime can use the war to strengthen their political control in the name of defending the country from foreign attack.

4. Anyone that helps to burn the burqa and open Iran back to the world economy will be a significant win that the Iranians will support. We’re like a year removed from the populace uprising from the current regime.

5. I’m skeptical of anti regime change arguments honestly. All the allusions to Saddam or Ghaddafi, basically saying that force to remove a dictator or engage in regime change is the wrong thing to do. And it is a fine argument as we saw with Iraq.

   The issue I have with it is when it basically crosses into “we need to keep these despicable regimes in power because of “unintended consequences”. And basically start defending the regime remaining in power until some hypothetical unexplained future where they end peacefully and everyone is happy.

   What if Khamenei has a heart attack? He is old and in a very stressful situation so it could happen. Does that not have “unintended consequences” too? What is different about that vs Israel dropping a bomb on his head? It leads to all the same outcomes. What if he surrenders and just seeks exile? Does that not have unintended consequences and we should start arguing “no stay because there will be a power vacuum etc”

   I’m not advocating for Israel to blow up Khamenei, just that people need to consider when their concern over “regime change” leads to just basically supporting dictators staying in power and all the obvious negative effects on the Iranian people.

   And it also basically says that some group of people aren’t capable of forming democracy on their own. Which I think in the case of Iran with the massive repeated anti regime protests disproves rather fully.

6. I need to preface this with saying that I highly dislike both the US and Israel in the context of this conflict, and I think that attempting regime change in this fashion is unintelligent mainly because it’s very unlikely work. But putting my biases aside and just looking at pure geopolitics, a destroyed and/or totally neutered Iran might not be *ideal* from the US/Israeli foreign policy perspective, but it’s a borderline a dream come true compared to what they’re facing right now. Iraq and Libya were failures in nation building/regime change and are total husks of their former selves, yes… but they also aren’t threatening US or Israeli interests in the region anymore at all, are they?

7. These are the following factors to consider:

   1. The Balkanization of Balochistan/Kurdistan
   2. More fertile ground for ISIS (9 Million Sunnis are in Iran) and the Taliban to select from
   3. Turkey wiggling in to suppress Kurdistan Separatism or to arm Azeri Gangs
   4. Pakistan wiggling in to suppress Balochi Separatism
   5. Future refugee crisis into Europe

   Also, you have to factor in nationalism. Saddam’s brutal invasion of Iran didn’t topple the regime if anything it strengthened nationalism behind it.

8. Lots of people don’t want a war, let’s be real the consequences might be felt price here in the US but back in Turkey and Europe it’s waves of migrants.

   We already have lots of Syrians from the war, the Iraq war finally ended and ISIS wiped off the map, but we don’t need another goddamn war just to restart again. This is why I dislike Israel’s foreign policy but also Netanyahu/ many congressmen view on regime change in Iran.

   No there isn’t gonna be a democratic state tomorrow in Iran, that takes decades to build. Look at Iran’s geography look at its terrain, It’s not gonna be a cakewalk, It’s gonna take a decades worth of resources just the conquering it.

   You want the Far right to win in Europe, this is an easy way to start that fire.

9. War buddies and co need some more money to make and more weapons to manufacture.

10. If the current regime falls, civil war is the likely outcome. Iran could easily turn into a turbocharged version of Syria if another group doesn’t step up immediately.

    Although Iraq is stabilizing now, it took 20 years after the fall of Saddam’s regime to get there. Just because the current regime is bad, doesn’t mean that the alternative is automatically better. Unfortunately “better” is subjective, and Netanyahu would 100% prefer an Iran crippled by civil war to the status quo, even if millions of Iranians have to suffer as a result.

11. Yup, the US and Israel could end up with a regime that holds weekly chants of “Death to America/Israel”, parade missiles with “Death to America/Israel” writings, fund, arm, and instigate proxies to attack their interests around the world, even on their home soil, and may go for nuclear weapons.

12. No really

13. It’s always the left wing papers that want to prop up dictators. They always fear disruption even if it advances liberty in the longer term.

14. A new type of ISIS can form?

15. Iran has two different parties with power: the clerics, with the Ayatollah and the IRGC, and the regular presidential government on the other hand. Up until now, the clerics had the real power and the president had limited control.

    To avoid a disastrous civil war, the Ayatollah should publicly end the cleric control over government.  Give the presidency full control of the country and armed forces. They can give Iran a way to save face, by acting like the more rational people have taken control in Iran. Let them arrange peace talks with the US and Israel and arrange free and fair elections within a year. 

16. A regime change having unintended consequences? Preposterous.

17. What could go wrong? The country is already run by ruthless dictators that sponsor terrorism.

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