The Israel-Iran War Just Changed Everything

The Israel-Iran War Just Changed Everything

[Music] the Cold War has turned hot overnight in the early hours of June 13th Israel launched preemptive strikes on Iran multiple explosions were heard across Thran with online footage showing blasts lighting up the capital but the fire that started in the city didn’t stop there additional explosions occurred in Isvahan Tabris Karman Sha Hamadan K and Piranha cities that host nuclear military or strategic sites separate strikes also hit the Natans nuclear site the Arak heavy water reactor and the Parchin military complex satellite imagery for instance shows considerable but likely superficial damage at Natans either way the initial 24 hours have been nothing short of a disaster for the Iranians israeli jets are flying almost uncontested over Iranian airspace mossad operatives are roaming freely launching drones and anti-tank guided missiles at key Iranian systems all while Hezbollah remains on the sidelines already multiple senior nuclear scientists and highranking military leaders have been killed as was bound to happen Iran responded harshly and launched waves of loitering munitions and ballistic missiles at Israel most of these were intercepted in the air but some made it through tel Aviv was hit multiple times and significant damage has been reported at Israel’s central military command center what we’re seeing is unlike anything the region has witnessed before the firepower unleashed makes Hezbollah and Hamas rockets look like toys by comparison meanwhile Netanyahu has urged Israeli citizens to prepare for a prolonged conflict and so it begins when sirens replace speeches war is no longer coming it has arrived as of this time the full extent of Israel’s attack on Iran is still unknown the initial strikes appear to have targeted radars air defenses aircraft and control towers which paves the way for follow-up attacks on secondary sites israel’s attention will now turn to the secondary targets of strategic and economic nature such as ports refineries and missile factories the Israeli military said as much when it described the operation as the first stage signaling that more attacks could follow in the next few days if not weeks but even if Israel’s next wave of attacks is tactically successful dismantling Iran’s nuclear program entirely would require direct American involvement without US involvement Israel can’t do it at best they might delay Iran’s progress by 1 to two years at worst the strikes could backfire prompting Iran to rapidly assemble a crude nuclear device as a deterrent against future attacks though Israel claims its goal is to take out Iran’s nuclear program and prevent it from building a nuclear bomb its actions suggest a deeper objective regime change all the Israeli attacks have so far targeted IRGC officials while avoiding the leadership of Iran’s regular armed forces which may be a calculated attempt at divide and rule you see the revolutionary guards and the regular military often operate at odds with the IRGC holding dominance in both political and economic spheres so by degrading the IRGC Israel may be trying to provoke internal friction perhaps even encouraging the regular military to turn against the revolutionary guards in a bid for power tellingly Israel’s campaign is called Operation Rising Lion which is likely a nod to the pre-revolution Iranian flag and suggests that regime change may be the ultimate objective whether that gamble pays off is another question entirely comparably Thrron’s strategy is also regime change but through more legal means the Iranians know they can’t change Netanyahu’s mind but they might just be able to collapse his government by building up domestic pressure and triggering a vote of no confidence to do this Iranians will need to deliver maximum harm to Israel but do so by focusing on infrastructure military and leadership targets while avoiding civilian sites as much as possible which may be difficult in practice and so the Iranians will want to launch waves of missiles at Israel day after day in the hope that it might lead to a vote of no confidence this would be a political victory that helps Thrron save face and boost its position in future negotiations but again there is no guarantee that it would work regime change is less a strategy than a roll of the dice the behavior of both Iran and Israel in the coming weeks will depend on a mix of military political regional and strategic factors even a slight shift in one variable like a US statement of support could trigger ripple effects that drastically alter their next moves in such a volatile moment weak retaliation from Iran won’t deter Israel but a strong one risks drawing America into the war that’s precisely what Israel may try to provoke escalating in hopes of pulling America in by contrast Iran will likely aim to respond in a way that shows strength and reestablishes deterrence while avoiding a wider conflict what the Iranians will likely want are strikes that preserve an off-ramp for deescalation for example by giving advanced warning to the United States and regional countries it took a similar approach during Operation True Promise in April 2024 when it launched a large-scale drone and missile attack on Israel but avoided triggering a wider conflict so at this stage it’s a matter of sustainment versus escalation israel may have deflected much of Iran’s first few waves of attacks but its stockpile of interceptors won’t hold out forever iran can try to wear down Israeli defenses fire enough missiles at enough targets and some will inevitably get through however Iran will face attrition of its own drones are plentiful but relatively easy to shoot down ballistic missiles are far more destructive and harder to intercept but they’re not easily replaced iran is believed to have an arsenal of around 3,000 ballistic missiles while not all have the range to reach Israel enough could break through Israeli and US air defenses to inflict serious damage and force Netanyahu’s political hand so again it comes down to a strategy of sustainment versus escalation in years past Iran wouldn’t have relied solely on its missiles its first line of defense was its network of Arab proxies specifically Hezbollah but after a year of fighting with Israel Hezbollah is now much weaker many of its leaders have been killed and much of its hierarchy has been infiltrated by Mossad agents hezbollah still has a large missile and rocket arsenal but using them now would be politically risky the Lebanese government is struggling to rebuild and has warned Hezbollah not to drag the country into another war on Iran’s behalf thus Hezbollah is sitting this one out alternatively to reestablish deterrence Iran could employ its proxies to launch a series of attacks on American forces stationed in Jordan Syria and Iraq at the same time the Houthis in Yemen could launch missiles at Israel and possibly target remaining US naval ships in the Red Sea however this would be a terribly risky move directly attacking US assets could prompt retaliation against the Iranian leadership something akin to the January 2020 assassination of Kud’s force commander Gasim Solmani the end result could see the US air force doing even more damage than Israel’s air strikes another way for Iran to establish deterrence and less expected would be to strike US allies in the Gulf region for example Iran could use its proxies to attack oil facilities in Saudi Arabia like it did in 2019 or hit targets in the UAE as it did in 2022 attacking the oil and gas infrastructure in the Gulf region including ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz would almost certainly cause oil prices to surge in such a scenario Gulf leaders who have pledged hundreds of billions in investments to the United States would likely push Trump to reign in Israel and halt its attacks on Iran there is no guarantee that it would work but sometimes the shortest path to victory goes through someone else’s backyard having said that any Iranian attack on Gulf Arab states while possible would likely end the improving diplomatic ties Iran has worked to build with those countries in recent years so every form of retaliation carries some risk of blowback yet perhaps the strongest form of deterrence for Iran would be to conduct a nuclear test it would signal to both Israel and the United States that Iran is no longer bluffing about its nuclear ambitions but it would also provoke international outrage trigger new sanctions and deepen Iran’s isolation still if the Iranian government sees its survival at stake the Supreme Leader may decide the cost is worth it a nuclear test would force the Israelis and Americans to weigh the risk of turning a conventional conflict into a nuclear one at the very least Thran may opt for a non-kinetic response one that signals nuclear intent but keeps it ambiguous enough to avoid immediate escalation iranian officials have long warned they would leave the non-prololiferation treaty if their nuclear program came under military attack that moment may now be near overall the course of both Israeli and Iranian actions in the coming weeks will depend on the scale and intensity of what each side does next the longer the attacks continue and the more damage they inflict the smaller the window for deescalation with every strike and counter strike controlling what comes next grows more difficult because despite best efforts precision strikes rarely end with precision outcomes

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Israel launched preemptive strikes on Iran. Multiple senior nuclear scientists and military leaders have been killed. Iran has responded harshly. And so it begins.

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