Quick overview
WTI crude oil futures held near $73.38 per barrel on Friday as geopolitical heat in the Middle East intensified. Prices are set to notch their third week in a row higher as traders weigh the risk of major supply disruptions against Iranian oil flows that are surprisingly strong.
Things escalated after Iran allegedly hit an Israeli hospital, and Israel ordered attacks on key military and government sites in Tehran. President Donald Trump is reportedly considering direct US military action against Iran and a decision is expected in two weeks. That has markets on edge but not yet in panic mode.
Interestingly, Iran is still exporting 2.2 million barrels per day, the most in five weeks, according to shipping data. That’s tempered fears of an immediate shortage.
US Inventory Drop Adds Support
Beyond geopolitics, the fundamentals offered a bullish surprise. US government data released this week showed the largest weekly crude inventory draw in over a year, meaning strong domestic demand or export activity.
The draw helped stabilize prices even as volatility increased. It also shows how thin supply buffers can amplify any geopolitical disruption especially if Iranian exports start to stall.
Quick snapshot:
US crude stockpiles posted biggest weekly drop in 12 months
Iran’s oil exports hit 5-week high amid conflict
Traders eye Trump’s Iran decision as risk driver
Crude Oil Technical Setup: Triangle Breakout Looms
WTI crude is coiled inside a symmetrical triangle with price above the rising trendline and the 50-period EMA at $72.54. The series of higher lows is bullish, while resistance at $75.03 is the ceiling for now.
Crude Oil Price Chart – Source: Tradingview
The MACD histogram is turning slightly negative, but no bearish engulfing or shooting star patterns have formed yet. Candlestick formations show spinning tops, indicating indecision near key levels.
Trade Setup:
Bullish breakout above $75.10 targets $76.38 and $77.53
Bearish breakdown below $72.50 eyes $71.31 and $69.69
Confirm moves with candle closes and volume surges
Bottom Line:
Crude is sitting at a technical crossroads. If bulls reclaim $75, expect an upside breakout. But if rising trendline support cracks, sellers may seize control fast.
Arslan Butt
Lead Markets Analyst – Multi-Asset (FX, Commodities, Crypto)
Arslan Butt serves as the Lead Commodities and Indices Analyst, bringing a wealth of expertise to the field. With an MBA in Behavioral Finance and active progress towards a Ph.D., Arslan possesses a deep understanding of market dynamics.
His professional journey includes a significant role as a senior analyst at a leading brokerage firm, complementing his extensive experience as a market analyst and day trader. Adept in educating others, Arslan has a commendable track record as an instructor and public speaker.
His incisive analyses, particularly within the realms of cryptocurrency and forex markets, are showcased across esteemed financial publications such as ForexCrunch, InsideBitcoins, and EconomyWatch, solidifying his reputation in the financial community.
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