Strange Atlantic cold spot linked to century-long slowdown of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC).

4 comments

1. This is imminently collapsing with 95 percent chance. This percentage is backed by 40 climate scientists. Most likely time of collapse is around 2050, but it’s already starting, and the effects will change the earth forever and kill billions of people.

2. There have been quite a few back and forth articles with regards to AMOC behavior since the first “its collapsing in the next 50 years” article. Some conclusions are that it’s fine. Others say we’re in bad shape.

   This article/study, however, matches real-world observations against modeling. Many of the articles I’ve seen where they claim the AMOC is stable often say they manipulate numbers or changed how things were calculated to show stability. This is the first article that I’ve seen where they looked for models aligning with real-world observations.

   There was a talk from Prof. Steven Rahmstorf, where he spoke about this “cold blob” and overlayed IPCC predictions over current observations, and it was startling. Current observations were much closer to what the IPCC was predicting a century or more away. It was this observation, along with some salinity modeling, that he concluded that the AMOC collapse was much closer than we were predicting.

   This is something that scientists really need to delve into. What are the best predictors of AMOC collapse and how do we measure them. I recall seeing a salinity measurement method that was particularly accurate, however, I do not recall the details.

   The effects of an AMOC shutdown are crippling for humanity. Changes could happen faster, and with more severity, than we would be able to adapt to. Probably the worst case scenario for much of our current civilization.

   Unfortunately, I think that even if an answer is discovered it will not be shared as the fallout of “AMOC will collapse” headlines would be pretty severe.

3. I can understand why there’s not been much of a consensus regarding this anomaly, there’s seemingly been a lack of agreement as to whether or not it’s a freshwater anomaly or if it’s a negative anomaly directly related to AMOC strength. I’ve always understood it to be more related to the latter. But in that context, it does raise some interesting points that also need to be considered. One detail that I’ve seldom ever seen adressed is the fact that, despite an observable weakening, land surface warming trends in Europe have exceeded expectations by a considerable margin. The traditional interpretation of AMOC theorem suggests that the opposite should have happened.

4. A full frozen hell coming to Europe.

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