Experts in India warned that any blockade would affect national energy security. (File Image)
In response, Iran has indicated that closing the Strait of Hormuz – a key maritime passage between the Persian Gulf and the Arabian Sea – remains a strategic option. Roughly 30% of global oil and a third of the world’s liquefied natural gas (LNG) flow through the strait each day.
Iran’s Parliament, the Majlis, has reportedly approved the closure of the Strait of Hormuz in response to the US attacks, the country’s state-owned media PressTV reported on Sunday, citing Esmaeil Kowsari, a member of the Majlis.
“A disruption in the Strait of Hormuz could have a huge impact on global oil supply and prices,” said Jorge Leon, head of geopolitical analysis at Rystad Energy. “Even without immediate retaliation, the geopolitical risk premium is likely to rise,” as quoted by The Guardian.
Brent crude could gain $3 to $5 per barrel when markets open, Ole Hvalbye, an SEB analyst, said in a note.
The Wall Street bank JPMorgan has warned that oil prices could soar to $130 per barrel if the strait is fully closed. The all-time high for Brent crude stands at $147.50, set in July 2008.
Experts in India, which imports much of its crude from Iraq and Saudi Arabia, warned that any blockade would affect national energy security. “This narrow shipping lane is vital for India’s oil supplies,” said Dr. Laxman Kumar Behera of Jawaharlal Nehru University.
Retired Indian Navy Captain D.K. Sharma added that even a short disruption could increase insurance premiums and shipping costs, leading to broader economic effects.
The International Energy Agency has said that any interruption to the strait’s traffic would have significant consequences for oil markets and global energy security. “Oil prices are expected to surge due to increased tensions in the region, with some analysts predicting prices to reach USD 80-USD 90 per barrel or even USD 100 per barrel if Iran responds with retaliatory measures,” he said, as quoted by PTI.
Iran has warned that the US strikes will bring “everlasting consequences” to the region.
Meanwhile, as tensions rise in the Middle East following US airstrikes on Iranian nuclear sites, Union Petroleum and Natural Gas Minister Hardeep Singh Puri said India’s energy supplies remain stable and well-diversified. He assured citizens that fuel availability would not be impacted in the near term.
In a post on X, “We have been closely monitoring the evolving geopolitical situation in the Middle East since the past two weeks. Under the leadership of PM Narendra Modi, we have diversified our supplies in the past few years and a large volume of our supplies do not come through the Strait of Hormuz now. Our Oil Marketing Companies have supplies of several weeks and continue to receive energy supplies from several routes. We will take all necessary steps to ensure stability of supplies of fuel to our citizens.”