+0,6 percent in 2025, +0,8 in 2026 and +0,7 in 2027

Italy’s GDP is estimated to increase by 0,6 percent in 2025, 0,8 in 2026 and 0,7 in 2027, driven mainly by the recovery in consumption. This is what emerges from the macroeconomic projections for Italy in the three-year period 2025-2027, prepared by the Bank of Italy. The projections are made on the basis of common assumptions agreed at the Eurosystem level. They assume an increase of around ten percentage points by the United States in tariffs on imports of goods from the European Union.

Inflation is expected to remain low, averaging 1,5 percent this year and next, and 2,0 percent in 2027. Excluding energy and food, it would average 1,8 percent this year and fall to 1,6 percent in the next two years, mainly reflecting lower pressures from labor costs.

The increase in tariffs and uncertainty would penalize investments and sales abroad, subtracting about 0,5 percentage points from GDP growth overall in the three-year period 2025-2027, according to the projections. A stronger tightening of trade policies and the persistence of high levels of uncertainty could determine more unfavorable developments. In particular, if tariffs were to return to the levels announced on April 2, growth would be about two tenths of a percentage point lower this year and up to half a point per year in the next two years compared to that forecast in the baseline scenario.

+0,6 percent in 2025, +0,8 in 2026 and +0,7 in 2027

Tags: