Ethiopia’s embattled Prime Minister, Abiy Ahmed—who garnered a Nobel Peace Prize under contentious and arguably premature circumstances—now seems to be adopting the hardline tactics of leaders like Benjamin Netanyahu in Gaza and Vladimir Putin in Crimea. His recent rhetoric and military posturing point to a significant shift toward assertive, even expansionist, regional ambitions, with a particular focus on securing access to the Red Sea.
He has openly declared Ethiopia’s ambitions for maritime access and a naval base “through diplomacy or military force” and has reportedly warned, in a closed-door meeting with senior members of his Prosperity Party, that Ethiopia could take severe measures against Eritrea if denied direct access to the Red Sea—allegedly referencing the situation in Gaza as a potential model. Such remarks suggest a willingness to resort to military action and reflect a troubling disregard for international norms. These statements raise serious concerns about the stability of the Horn of Africa and the potential precedent they could set for regional power dynamics.
Over the past two years, Abiy Ahmed’s veiled threats have extended beyond Eritrea, subtly encompassing Somalia and Djibouti as well. However, it has gradually become clear that his true target is the strategic Eritrean port city of Assab, intensifying regional anxieties over Ethiopia’s intentions. Consequently, his foreign policy has prompted a wave of regional condemnation. Djiboutian President Ismaïl Guelleh firmly rejected any parallels to Russian actions in Eastern Europe, declaring that “Djibouti is not Crimea.” Meanwhile, Eritrea has consistently condemned what it sees as reckless adventurism that risks destabilizing an already fragile region.
Indeed, what emerges is a deeply troubling picture of a leader pivoting from Nobel Peace Prize laureate to regional power broker—exploiting nationalism and regional insecurity in pursuit of geostrategic objectives. Ethiopia’s aspiration for maritime access is not new, but the methods now being considered risk destabilizing a region where diplomatic missteps have historically escalated into open conflict. In addition, Abiy Ahmed’s weakening hold on power appears to be driving a calculated effort to deflect attention from internal crises by manufacturing external threats. Often, creating an enemy abroad serves to rally nationalist sentiment and distract from mounting domestic unrest. This is especially true for Ethiopia, where framing a war as a national quest for sea access has historically enabled governments to easily galvanize public support.
More broadly, this development reflects the gradual erosion of the rules-based international order. The breach of international law and the disregard for sovereignty and territorial integrity—as enshrined in the UN Charter—did not begin with Ethiopia. It traces back to the U.S. unilateral invasion of Iraq. This precedent was later echoed by Russia’s annexation of Crimea and its ongoing war in Ukraine. Most recently, Israel’s unprovoked strike on Iran further reinforced a pattern: when powerful states act with impunity, smaller powers may follow suit. Worse still, the Trump administration’s unsolicited attacks on three of Iran’s nuclear facilities—carried out without any evidence of military intent—have reinforced the perception that without nuclear weapons, smaller states remain vulnerable to unprovoked aggression by major powers. Consequently, the risk of a new global arms race has reached unprecedented levels.
Thus, a cascading normalization of lawlessness in global affairs is becoming a norm. When a global superpower disregards international law, it opens the door for regional powers to do the same—and eventually, even fragile states with limited capacity to feed their own populations begin to mimic these behaviors. This trajectory suggests that the world is entering an increasingly volatile and unpredictable phase of international relations.
If such trends go unchallenged, authoritarian leaders—whether in Ethiopia or elsewhere—will continue to exploit global inaction and geopolitical fragmentation to redraw borders by force. The result could be a return to 19th-century-style great power competition and perpetual conflict: a world where might trumps right, and war becomes the default tool of statecraft. This is not merely an African or regional issue; it is a global warning sign.
As global attention remains fixed on the escalating Iran-Israel conflict, the Horn of Africa teeters on the brink of yet another potentially devastating interstate war. Amid the international distraction, Ethiopia’s Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed appears to be calculating that the current geopolitical climate presents a strategic opportunity to act against a neighboring state—with minimal global scrutiny or consequence.
This perception of a power vacuum in international diplomacy, where so-called “minor regional conflicts” receive little attention, emboldens leaders to pursue aggressive territorial ambitions. In Ethiopia’s case, longstanding desires for access to the Red Sea may now be pursued through force, under the assumption that the world’s eyes are elsewhere. The recent visit to Addis Ababa by U.S. Africa Command (AFRICOM) Commander General Michael Langley presented a critical opportunity—one that, if properly leveraged, could have allowed the U.S., particularly under the Trump administration’s renewed focus on strategic deterrence, to issue a clear warning to Ethiopia. Such a warning would aim to prevent the outbreak of another interstate conflict in the Horn of Africa—one that would further destabilize the already volatile Red Sea basin.
This region is rapidly gaining geostrategic importance, especially with the growing destabilization of the Strait of Hormuz. In this context, the Red Sea is increasingly viewed as a vital alternative sea line of communication. A new conflict in the Horn would not only threaten regional peace but also jeopardize maritime security along this critical corridor, further destabilizing the already volatile Red Sea region—particularly in the context of the ongoing Israel-Iran war. Therefore, the international community must urge Ethiopia’s leadership to respect the sovereignty and territorial integrity of its neighbors. If Abiy Ahmed’s ambitions go unchecked, they risk sparking regional conflict and could even accelerate the disintegration of Ethiopia—a nation already mired in a protracted civil war for the past seven years.