Early intelligence suggests Iran’s uranium largely intact, European officials say

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1. SS:Preliminary intelligence assessments provided to European governments indicate that Iran’s highly enriched uranium stockpile remains largely intact following US strikes on its main nuclear sites, two officials have said.
   The people said the intelligence suggested that Iran’s stockpile of 408kg of uranium enriched close to weapons-grade levels was not concentrated in Fordow, one of its two main enrichment sites, at the time of attack.
   It had been distributed to various other locations, the assessments found.
   Rafael Grossi, director-general of the International Atomic Energy Agency, told French Radio on Thursday that Iran’s nuclear programme had “suffered enormous damage”, though he said claims of its complete destruction were overblown.
   The US had not provided definitive intelligence to EU allies on Iran’s remaining nuclear capabilities following the strikes, and was withholding clear guidance on how it plans future relations with Tehran, said three officials briefed on the discussions.

2. So this is lose-lose-lose. Israel may be proven right, USA still claim they destroyed it all, and Iran more likely to use them now.

3. This is a great example of why media literacy is important.

   Headline reads like this is a European intelligence conclusion.

   “Intelligence assessments provided to European governments”

   “Provided to” suggests it’s not European intelligence at all. We have no idea who is making this assessment or what country the two “European” officials are from. Not even if this is from EU/NATO block Europe or Russia-aligned Europe.

4. Trump is full of sound and fury signifying nothing. We can see that all Trump did was bluster while nuking any diplomatic legitimacy we now have. Not only has he murdered the JCPOA with this action he has strangled the NPT as well. We have taught the world first with Ukraine, then with Gaddafi, and now with Iran that the West cannot be trusted and without nukes you have no defense.

   I now take it as granted that Iran will have the bomb likely before Trump’s term is up.

5. I’m afraid that all we’ve achieve with this airstrike is to convince Iran to do whatever it takes to get a nuclear bomb or two no matter what the costs may be.

6. All these strikes as successful as they where in weakening the Mullahs internally, killing off the quds forces commanders, and controlling iranian airspace without any loses, all it really did is set back the nuclear program and made all the Iranian factions (even the opposition and moderates, reformers) conclude for national survival Iran needs a nuke, Iraq and libya didnt have nukes and their countries laid in ruins from western, qatari, turkish interventionism that wrecked the region, Russia has nukes and no one dares invades Russia ever again and the us may cut a deal to cede Ukranian territory to Russia, North Kirea has nukes and regime change seem mission impossible there and can act out it negative behavior with only economic consequences.

7. If you were the Iranians and it was very likely that your uranium stockpiles would be bombed in a specific place, the most logical thing to do would be to move them, which they apparently did a few days before the strikes based on satellite data.

8. This doesn’t contradict any of what US officials have said.  The uranium may be at 60% but you need equipment to enrich them to weapons grade.  Now that equipment (centrifuges) are gone along with the most protected sites.  Even dispersed, any other storage sites are more vulnerable and new construction or manufacturing attempts can be hit again.

   The Iranians are set back by years.

   Also, this is what Caine said about how Fordow was targeted and what they saw during the strike:

   https://youtu.be/f613j7-eA5U?si=uZIHZjXgK4fFpNAN

   Fordow and Natanz are gone.  Obliterated exactly as Trump said.  There’s zero chance they did not suffer catastrophic damage.

9. I mean, this bombing and subsequent truceallowed both parties (eg. Israel+USA and Iran) to look good to their respective populations. It’s resolved in nothing but a publicity stunt that has reinforced the Ayatollah and Netanyahu régimes, and solidified Trump’s image among republicans. It’s not like it was supposed to really change anything. Everyone is happy in the whole deal, except a few hundred civilians and some military commanders…

10. The uranium was never the target; and there is even speculation by external intelligence sources that the U.S. actually tipped off Iran to secure the material before the U.S. struck. There’s a reason why the U.S. didn’t hit Bushehr, and it wasn’t Russian scientists, it was the fact that there was a good chance material could leak into the gulf, where most of the neighboring states rely on desalination for their water. Qatar (the entire country) would run out of water in 2-3 days if there was an event.

    Again, targeting the Uranium (even the 60%) was never the aim. The aim was destroying the ability to refine at scale which means the target was the masses of centrifuges that can be damaged fairly easily. The IAEA has already confirmed that it could conclude just from pictures provided to it that there was no possibility centrifuges at Fordo were not significantly damaged at the very least.

    [https://www.nytimes.com/2025/06/26/world/middleeast/centrifuges-fordo-damage-iran.html](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/06/26/world/middleeast/centrifuges-fordo-damage-iran.html)

11. I love it that so many of you don’t understand evidence and are absolutely convinced one way or another. This thread is a virtual clinic in motivated reasoning.

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