Many think the war in Ukraine is a tie. But strategically, Ukraine is much closer to achieving its initial strategic goals than russia is. Here’s why Ukraine is closer to winning—and why russia is facing one of the biggest military failures in modern history

10 comments

1. Redefining goals and manufacturing narrative.

   Such a beautiful example of propaganda.

2. Lots of bullshit there.

   Russian goals for Ukraine: occupy and annex Ukrainian territories with large heavy metal deposits, especially lithium.

   Ukrainian goals: maintain territorial integrity and pre-2014 borders.

   Russian goals are being achieved, and Ukraine’s goals are not.

   In order for Ukraine to really win this, they have to be striking the rear of Russian territories more and hitting so the safe, urban, supportive population feels the war.

3. I don’t refute Russia’s strategic failure, but I think this is a bit of revisionism on Ukraine’s objectives. Yes, their primary objective is to retain sovereignty, and they’ve achieved and maintained that in the unoccupied regions. But since the 2022 counteroffensive, that’s not their leading stance. Their leading stance has been full reclamation of their territory, INCLUDING Crimea. And while true that Russia has failed to meaningfully regain lost ground since the first year of the war, the fact remains that Ukraine has not regained much territory if any since the end of the 2022 counteroffensive. Don’t forget that Ukraine has its own manpower shortage, which is seemingly always glossed over in this sub. And for all the lovely talk from Ukraine’s western allies, I don’t foresee balance-changing aid on the way that will suddenly allow them to break through. Sure, on paper Russia’s war efforts are unsustainable, but this is as much an existential conflict for them at this point as it is for Ukraine. They will empty every last man, mortar, and penny they have rather than capitulate while they move forward a couple kilometers at a time and Ukraine is unable to retake strategic positions they’ve lost. So, to bring it back to the original notion that Ukraine is closer to reaching their objectives, I reject that on the basis of moving goalposts after the fact. Zelenskyy cannot proclaim victory to his citizens if he signs a peace treaty that cedes those territories, and I don’t see Putin giving up what he’s taken out of the niceness of his heart.

4. Afghanistan is now ancient history I suppose.

5. No one’s winning this war, it’s a brutal stalemate with Russia still making slow gains. Askola’s overly positive takes give the false impression that Ukraine is doing fine and doesn’t need help. The thread uses similar tactics that I have seen with Russian analysts who claim they are winning the war. Ukraine urgently needs air defenses, ammo, and real support. If they were close to winning, like he claims, why would aid still be so critical? I’m not a fan of stuff like this gaining traction because there needs to be a lot more urgency about Ukraine’s predicament; they need the stuff now.

6. No, this is a tie in favor of the russian. Ukraine is far from liberating all their territory.this issad to say but that s the truth.

7. I see Russia as a bear trapped in a bear trap. It’s rabid and pissed, not to be approached and liable to kill anything near it. It will eventually bleed out and die but when it comes to Russia and not an actual bear, it’s going to take many years. In that time, Ukraine will continue to be battered. So it doesn’t matter if it’s a tie or not; it’s not a game. It’s a war where even the weak invader is causing untold amounts of damage until it eventually collapses.

8. Russia hasn’t thrown its red army meat waves yet. Soldiers are still paid volunteers.

   I fear this war has years to go, yet with lots of twists and turns.

9. The goal of Russia was the annex all of Ukraine. Ukraine prevented that so no matter what, Ukraine has won this war. All there is to figure out is what kind of victory it is

10. How can you lose territory, thousands of soldiers if not a whole generation and still be winning?🤔

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