Ipsos haven't done a poll since January 2024 so quite radical swings but:

List:

  • SNP ~ 26% (-7)
  • Lab ~ 22% (-9)
  • RUK ~ 16% (+14)
  • Grn ~ 15% (+4)
  • Con ~ 10% (-3)
  • LD ~ 8% (+1)
  • Alba ~ 2% (+1)

Constituency:

  • SNP ~ 34% (-5)
  • Lab ~ 23% (-7)
  • RUK ~ 14% (+13)
  • Con ~ 10% (-4)
  • Grn ~ 9% (+3)
  • LD ~ 9% (+2)
  • Alba ~ 1% (nc)

Source: https://bsky.app/profile/ballotbox.scot/post/3lsw3sxum2c2t

by StonedPhysicist

18 comments

  1. There are also Westminster figures and an independence figure from this data set today but I’ll leave those for someone else to post.

    Immediate thoughts: lol, lmao. Obviously I want no Reform MSPs but I am taking the deepest pleasure at a margin of error chance of Greens in third place and Cons in last.

  2. This would certainly be an interesting shift in Scottish politics.

  3. The SNP would get 59 MSPs for 26% of the list vote. Just shows how unproportional the Holyrood election system can be.

  4. The SNP will never reset its policy base or approach to government without a spell in opposition. As an independence supporter it’s michty depressing. We’ve had the immense money and resources of almost 2 decades in the Scottish Government, all that short money from Westminster, and all the tithes from every elected Member to pay for central staff – and the largest membership of any political party in Scotland – and we still haven’t fleshed out the intellectual argument for independence. What was it all for?

  6. I was never an SNP supporter In the past, as I get older I get a little more left and the thought of Reform getting a sniff of anything makes me physically gag. Given labour are now centerist it’s SNP all the way…… Keep these racist nazi fuckers out of Scotland, you are not welcome

  7. The numbers for the Greens seem unrealistic.

    Doubling their seats and also not only winning their first ever constituency but winning three? For reference they only came 2nd in a single constituency last time around and would require a fairly heafty 10pt swing from SNP to Green.

    So while Scots are also voting in their droves for the Greens in 2026 they are also returning the largest vote share for right wing parties in the history of devolution.

    Calling bullshit.

  8. No doubt our Great British Press will tell us this is a disaster for the SNP and Independence is dead.

    Or yet more stories about Ferries.

  9. A massive collapse in the pro indy parties’ (Green and SNP) vote compared to 2021. Yet increasing their number of seats. The unionist vote is split 4 ways instead of 3 ways, and seemingly Indy voters are starting to realise their list vote for the SNP is a waste, so more efficiently voting Green on the list.

    Honsetly this voting system sucks and can be easily exploited (Alba in 2021 tried to break it) Would much rather move to the new Welsh voting system in 2026.

  11. It does my head in that east lothian always seems to insist on labour.

  12. Jackson Carlaw being deseated – all is right with the world

    Uhh, maybe except the other blue team…

  15. Almost 60% of the seats for pro-independence parties with under 45% of the vote (and almost a majority for the SNP with either a quarter or a third of the vote) – less disproportionate than Westminster, but a system that probably needs to be reformed.

  16. I really doubt the greens will make such a breakthrough, I mean I get the OP is a green member and is probably elated, but I don’t see it happening. Unless the SNP really fragment more.

  17. Always amazes me how Willie Rennie has managed to cling to the arsehole of Fife all these years.

  18. With Labour going full anti-welfare and anti-NHS Reform gaining power, the need for an independence stronghold has become the only option for me.

    SNP 2026.

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