The Iranian regime has once again resorted to nuclear brinkmanship, formally suspending all cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). This move, ratified on June 25, 2025, is being portrayed by Tehran as a show of strength.
However, a closer look reveals it to be a transparent and panicked bluff, a desperate act orchestrated by the Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, to mask profound internal weakness and an existential fear of impending international sanctions.
The regime’s latest escalation is a direct response to the growing threat of the snapback sanctions, which would automatically reimpose all prior UN sanctions suspended by the 2015 nuclear agreement between Tehran and world powers. This is a possibility the clerical regime, already crippled by internal crises, cannot afford. The regime’s Foreign Minister, Abbas Araghchi, betrayed this fear when he warned that European activation of the snapback would be “Europe’s biggest historic mistake,” making the nuclear issue “far more complicated and difficult.”
European leaders are well aware of their leverage. The German Foreign Minister has called the snapback mechanism a “real trump card,” while French foreign minister Jean-Noel Barrot explicitly stated, “If Tehran refuses to negotiate a strict and lasting framework for its nuclear activities that guarantees our security interests, we will be able to activate this mechanism.”
Compounding the regime’s panic is the knowledge that its “look to the East” policy is useless in this scenario. As the state-run Shargh newspaper lamented, the snapback “allows for the unilateral return of UN sanctions… without the right of veto (by China and Russia).” With a looming deadline of late August 2025 for Europe to activate the 3-month process, the regime’s own media describes it as being caught “under the shadow of the trigger.”
Cornered by the imminent threat of total economic isolation, the regime is lashing out at the IAEA as a perceived “weak link” it can intimidate. The official pretext for suspending cooperation—to “ensure the security of facilities and scientists”—is a thin veil for its true motives. The regime is desperately trying to prevent IAEA inspectors from assessing the full extent of the “destruction” at its nuclear sites in Fordow and Natanz following recent U.S. strikes. This reality was underscored by U.S. President Donald Trump, who noted that the sites were obliterated, as even the IAEA has said it cannot enter them. By blocking inspectors, the regime hopes to hide its military failures and buy time.
The regime’s belligerent rhetoric accompanying this move only serves to highlight its desperation. On July 1, 2025, Alaeddin Boroujerdi, a member of the parliament’s Security Commission, threatened that Iran might need to enrich uranium to 90% for its “ocean-faring ships.” In the same breath, he baselessly attacked IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi as an “incompetent” individual who committed “treason” by issuing a “false report.” Another official from the regime’s judiciary went so far as to suggest putting Mr. Grossi on trial in absentia.
The regime is attempting to project an image of strength while carefully leaving the door open for future negotiations. This contradiction proves that Tehran’s leadership is not acting from a position of confidence, but is flailing wildly, hoping its bluster will deter the inevitable.
Terrified by the prospect of snapback sanctions and reeling from its own military and political failures, it has resorted to blackmail. The international community must see these actions for what they are: the last, desperate gambits of a failing theocracy. Now is the time for firmness, not appeasement. The only viable path forward is to reject the regime’s intimidation, enforce international resolutions, and stand with the Iranian people and their organized Resistance in their quest for a democratic, secular, and non-nuclear republic.