Nuclear weapons: Who get am and how dem take get am?

Eighty years afta di United States detonate di first nuclear bomb, Iran nuclear programme don dey di centre of a major escalation of hostilities for di Middle East.

On 2 July, Iran president sign law wey suspend cooperation wit di UN nuclear watchdog, di International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), afta Israel and di United States attack nuclear facilities for June.

Israel and di US both tok say di attacks dey necessary to prevent Iran from building nuclear weapons.

E remain unclear exactly how much damage di attacks do and wetin di fallout fit be for di region and di UN Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), wey come into force 55 years ago and don help limit di spread of nuclear weapons.

Nine kontris dey known to get nuclear weapons. How dem take get am and odas fit get am too?

Di United States, Russia, di United Kingdom, China, France, India, Pakistan, Israel, and North Korea dey known to get nuclear weapons, though Israel na di only one of dis wey neva confam dis officially.

Di United States become di first nuclear power afta dem secretly develop di weapons as part of di Manhattan Project during World War Two.

Di US deploy di weapons for 1945, drop atomic bombs for Hiroshima and Nagasaki for Japan, wey be one of di Axis powers – a military coalition wey also include Nazi Germany and Italy and wey di Allied forces dey at war wit.

Di blasts dey estimated to don kill at least 200,000 pipo. Dis remain di only time any kontri go use nuclear weapons for conflict.

Arms control expert Dr Patricia Lewis say dis na di “real opening salvo of di nuclear arms race”, wey prompt oda kontris, notably di Soviet Union, to urgently seek to build dia own nuclear weapons, both as a deterrent against attack and to project power regionally and globally.

Less dan two years afta World War Two end, di Cold War begin – a global power struggle between di United States and di Soviet Union and both sides allies wey last for more dan 40 years and at times bin threaten to escalate into nuclear conflict.

Di Soviets begin attempt to build atomic bomb during World War Two and succeed for 1949 wen dem conduct a successful test, wey end di US monopoly on nuclear weapons. Afta dis, both sides gada to develop nuclear weapons wey even dey more destructive.

Ova di next 15 years, three more kontris become nuclear powers.

For 1952, di UK, wey don collabo wit di US on nuclear weapons development during World War Two, become di third, followed by France for 1960 and China for 1964.

By the 1960s, di five nuclear powers – di US, Soviet Union, di UK, France, and China – bin dey firmly established. But fears bin grow say di number of nuclear-armed states fit rise well-well.

In response, di United Nations bin introduce di Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), wey dey designed to prevent di further spread of nuclear weapons, promote disarmament, and facilitate peaceful use of nuclear energy.

Di treaty enta into force for 1970, but no be all kontris sign am, and nuclear weapons really spread.

India become nuclear power for 1974 and Pakistan for 1998. Two of dem no sign di treaty, in part becos of security concerns wey each of dem get about di oda.

Israel no also sign di treaty.

Israeli officials don consistently point to regional threats and tensions and di hostility of many of dia neighbours as reasons why dem no sign di treaty.

E don maintain policy of nuclear ambiguity – wey mean say dem no confam or deny say dem get nuclear weapons.

North Korea initially sign di agreement, only to withdraw for 2003, and blame US and South Korean joint military exercises.

For 2006, e explode a nuclear weapon during a test. South Sudan, wey dem found for 2011 na di only oda UN member state wey no be signatory of di treaty.

“As far as we know” Iran neva build bomb yet, Andrew Futter, a professor of international politics for di University of Leicester for di UK, tok.

E add: “But technically or technologically, e no get real reason why dem no fit do dat.”

Iran, a signatory of di Non-Proliferation Treaty, don always tok say dia nuclear programme dey peaceful and say dem neva try to develop nuclear weapon.

However, a decade-long investigation by di UN nuclear watchdog, di International Atomic Energy Agency, find evidence say Iran conduct “a range of activities relevant to di development of nuclear explosive device” from di late 1980s until 2003, wen projects under wetin dey known as “Project Amad” bin stop.

For 2015, Iran agree a deal wit six world powers under wia dem accept restrictions on dia nuclear activities and allow monitoring by di IAEA inspectors in return for relief from crippling international sanctions.

But US President Donald Trump abandon di deal during im first term for 2018. E say e do too little to prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons, and bring back di sanctions. Iran bin retaliate by repeatedly breaching IAEA restrictions, particularly dose wey dey related to uranium enrichment.

On 12 June 2025, di IAEA 35-nation board of govnors declare say Iran, for di first time for 20 years don breach di non-proliferation obligations.

Di next day, Israel launch a series of strikes on Iranian nuclear and military targets. E later dey joined by dia close ally, di US, wey hit three of Iran nuclear facilities, including di underground Fordo site.

Israel neva officially confam say dem get nuclear weapons but e dey widely believed say dem get significant arsenal.

For October 1986, Israeli nuclear technician Mordechai Vanunu pass details to di British newspaper The Sunday Times say Israel possess a nuclear weapons programme far bigger and more advanced dan dem previously think.

For dis, dem jail am for Israel for 18 years, and release am for 2004.

According to di Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), a think thank, Israel dey modernise dia arsenal.

For 2024, Israel conduct test of missile propulsion system “wey fit dey related to dia Jericho family of nuclear-capable ballistic missiles” and dem appear to dey upgrade dia plutonium production site at Dimona, SIPRI tok.

Israel don act militarily to prevent regional rivals from acquiring nuclear capabilities.

In addition to dia strikes on Iran, dem bomb one nuclear reactor for Iraq for 1981 and a suspected nuclear site for Syria for 2007.

Oda kontris, such as Brazil, Sweden, and Switzerland, start dey work towards building nuclear weapons only to later abandon dia programmes, either voluntarily or sake of external pressure.

South Africa na di only kontri for di world to successfully build nuclear weapons and den disarm dem and dismantled dia nuclear programme.

“Dat still stand out as a pretty significant outlier for di nuclear age – of a state wey build dia own nuclear weapons and den decide to disarm,” Futter say.

Di decision dey driven by a combination of factors, including di end of di apartheid regime, a decrease in regional conflicts, and shifting global political dynamics.

Afta di collapse of di Soviet Union for 1991, three newly independent states – Ukraine, Belarus, and Kazakhstan – inherite nuclear arms but give am up. Ukraine give up dia weapons in return for security guarantees from di US, the UK, and Russia under di 1994 Budapest Memorandum.

But Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky don repeatedly argue say im kontri – wey don dey in conflict wit Russian forces for ova a decade bin gain little for giving up di weapons.

Becos govment rarely disclose full details of dia nuclear arsenals, e dey difficult to know exactly how many weapons each kontei get.

But according to di SIPRI tink tank, di world nuclear powers possess an estimated total of 12,241 warheads as of January 2025, wit Russia and di US holding about 90% of di global stockpile.

Although di dismantling of retired warheads don generally pass di deployment of new ones, dis trend dey likely to reverse “for di coming years”, di tink tank say.

Wetin happun wit Iran nuclear programme dey likely to influence weda oda kontris dey consider to build nuclear weapons, sabi pesin tok.

Following di Israeli and US strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities for June, US President Donald Trump declare Iran nuclear programme don dey put back by “decades”.

For July, di Pentagon say US strikes don degrade Iran nuclear programme by up to two years.

If Iran really develop a nuclear weapon, oda kontris for di Middle East, notably Saudi Arabia, fit seek to develop dia own, Futter say.

“I tink Saudi Arabia dey pretty clear say dem no currently want a nuclear capability, but a nuclear-armed Iran fit change di game entirely,” e say.

“How quick or easy dat go dey to do na anoda kwesion.”

Dr Lewis tok say “high risk” of Iran withdrawing from di NPT, wey in turn go increase di likelihood of odas to comot. Dis go be a “body blow” for di treaty but not necessarily fatal, she say.

But even if oda states decide to attempt to build nuclear weapons, Dr Lewis say e get significant challenges to overcome, notably to acquire enriched uranium or weapons-grade plutonium, both of wey dey strictly controlled.

She also highlights di financial burden.

“E dey expensive and take years – especially if dem do am for secret. But dat neva stop poorer kontris like North Korea and Pakistan.”