OPM Retirement Backlog Grows 22% In June Amid Claims Surge

The OPM retirement backlog surged by 22% in June 2025, driven by an unprecedented number of incoming of federal retirement claims. This marks the highest mid-year spike in retirement claims in at least six years, continuing the abnormal pattern that began in May.

These two months represent a significant departure from historical mid-year patterns in federal employee retirement activity. Traditionally, January sees the highest volume of retirement applications, while summer months tend to be quieter.

OPM Retirement Backlog Grows Sharply in June

In June 2025, OPM received 13,430 retirement claims and processed 8,585, resulting in a total backlog of 26,328 pending cases. This is a 22.5% increase over May, when the backlog stood at 21,483.

While May’s surge was already notable, June’s continued influx of claims and slower processing pace pushed the backlog to its highest level since January. This sustained upward trend in mid-year retirement activity deviates sharply from historical seasonal norms, where summer months typically see lower volumes.

📈 June Retirement Claims: Year-over-Year Comparison

YearClaims ReceivedClaims ProcessedBacklog (Inventory) June 20206,5557,30017,432June 20217,2646,88424,999June 20226,0327,93530,443June 20234,8546,60916,370June 20246,9195,61415,340June 202513,4308,58526,328

The June 2025 figure of 13,430 claims received is more than double the average for the same month over the past five years. Even compared to the previous high in June 2021 (7,264), this year’s volume is unprecedented.

The figures in May were similar.

📊 May Retirement Claims: Year-over-Year Comparison

YearClaims ReceivedClaims ProcessedBacklog (Inventory)May 20206,6488,36018,177May 20217,6848,45124,619May 20227,67310,26615,532May 20236,0968,35518,125May 20246,7518,79314,035May 202515,0489,73921,483

May 2025 stands out as a dramatic departure from historical norms, with more than double the five-year average for that month, which hovers around 6,970.

Additionally, the OPM retirement backlog jumped from 16,173 in April to 21,483 in May 2025, a 32.7% increase month-over-month. This reversed the steady decline seen from January to April 2025.

Noteworthy Trends in May and June Retirement Data

1. 2025 Claims Volume Exceeds Historical Averages

For May and June, 2025 saw over 28,000 claims received combined, significantly higher than the typical volume for those months over the previous five years.

The average number of claims received for May and June between 2020–2024 is approximately 13,295, making 2025 an extreme outlier.

2. Inventory Levels Reflected in Unusual Mid-Year Spike

The OPM retirement backlog fluctuates annually depending on processing efficiency, but 26,328 in June 2025 is one of the highest levels outside of January over the past six years.

By contrast, June 2023 inventory was only 16,370, and May 2024 reached a low of 14,035.

3. Claims Received Surpass Claims Processed

In 2025, the gap between claims received and claims processed widened:

May: 15,048 received vs. 9,739 processed

June: 13,430 received vs. 8,585 processed

In prior years, that gap was much narrower, or reversed (e.g., May 2022: 7,673 received vs. 10,266 processed), showing the system was previously maintaining or even catching up.

What’s Driving the Surge?

What is driving this unusual spike in retirement applications? My guess is that the Trump administration’s efforts to shrink the federal workforce are impacting the numbers.

Agencies have been conducting VERAs (voluntary early retirement authority) and the deferred resignation buyout offers, and OPM has confirmed that VERAs are one of a number of factors that impact the retirement numbers. The downsizing efforts that began earlier this year can lead to a situation where the OPM retirement backlog is likely to grow quickly as federal employees retire.

OPM also recently announced that the overall size of the federal workforce had decreased based on new data published for the first quarter of 2025. The agency said that the total number of federal employees employed by the government went from 2,313,216 on September 30, 2024 to 2,289,472 on March 31, 2025.

Because the original deferred resignation offer went through the end of the current fiscal year, the trend may continue through the end of September. OPM echoed this in its announcement about the declining total workforce numbers in which it stated that “hundreds of thousands more workers will drop off the rolls in October 2025,” because of the deferred resignation program.

A New Era for the Retirement Process?

OPM officially launched its Online Retirement Application (ORA) system last month, marking a historic shift away from paper-based retirement processing. As of June 2, all new federal retirement applications must be submitted electronically. Starting next week (July 15), OPM will no longer accept paper retirement submissions.

OPM’s existing retirement processing system is notoriously slow since it requires processing paper applications by hand. According to OPM’s Retirement Quick Guide, it typically takes 3-5 months to process a retirement application but can take longer if delays occur. If the new digital processing system proves to be successful, perhaps it will help expedite the process and ultimately eliminate the backlog altogether.

The latest retirement processing statistics are included below for reference.

📊 OPM Retirement Processing Status: June 2025

MonthClaims ReceivedClaims ProcessedInventoryMonthly Avg Processing Time (Days)FYTD Avg Processing Time (Days)Oct-236,9246,09816,6787373Nov-235,2076,05915,8266669Dec-235,6627,19614,2926869Jan-2412,9976,46720,8226668Feb-248,79410,02519,5914762Mar-247,94310,71116,8235561Apr-246,9017,64716,0776161May-246,7518,79314,0356061Jun-246,9195,61415,3406461Jul-246,4515,99415,7976561Aug-247,0837,70215,1786461Sep-245,6186,30214,4946362Oct-246,8726,45814,9086262Nov-246,8087,87213,8445558Dec-245,0204,98813,8765758Jan-2516,6016,70023,2776460Feb-259,63712,36420,5504455Mar-257,80311,55916,7945054Apr-258,3328,95316,1734953May-2515,0489,73921,4835653*Jun-2513,4308,58526,3285853

Disability determinations are included in the pending number after approval. Average Processing Time in Days represents the number of days starting when OPM receives the retirement application through final adjudication.

*Initial retirement cases produced in less than 60 days, on average took 29 days to complete; whereas cases that were produced in more than 60 days, on average, took 114.6 days to complete.