Key Points and Summary – A direct Russian invasion of a NATO country is unlikely in the near term, but the threat of a coordinated Russia-China military gambit is a growing concern.
-In a recent New York Times interview, NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte warned of a scenario where China, preparing to invade Taiwan, could ask Russia to “keep them busy in Europe by attacking NATO territory.”
-While Russia’s military has been severely degraded by the war in Ukraine, its long-term goal remains to undermine the alliance.
-This “two-front” nightmare scenario, however hypothetical, highlights the interconnected nature of global threats facing the West.
Russia Attacks NATO and China Invades Taiwan All At Once?
Over the past several years, relations between Russia and China have increased significantly, with China becoming a big supplier of electronics to the western-isolated Russia.
With cooperation between the two increasing, there are concerns that Russia could play a key role should China decide to invade Taiwan in the future.
These concerns were raised recently by NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte in a recent interview with The New York Times.
Can Russia Attack NATO?
In a recent statement, Rutte suggested that Russia could start a direct confrontation with NATO to buy space for China to invade Taiwan. “There’s an increasing realization, and let’s not be naïve about this: If Xi Jinping would attack Taiwan, he would first make sure that he makes a call to his very junior partner in all of this, Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin, residing in Moscow, and telling him, ‘Hey, I’m going to do this, and I need you to keep them busy in Europe by attacking NATO territory,’” Rutte said, “That is most likely the way this will progress.”
The question then remains, how likely is it that Russia will attack NATO after the war in Ukraine ends?
Would Russia Help China?
To begin with, Russia’s military has been significantly weakened by the ongoing war in Ukraine. The conflict has exposed deep flaws in the Russian armed forces, including logistical inefficiencies, poor command structures, and a lack of modern equipment. Russia has suffered heavy losses in personnel and materiel, and while it is attempting to rebuild its forces, this process will take years. The war has also strained Russia’s defense industrial base, which is struggling to keep up with the demands of a prolonged conflict.
Russia Needs Time to Recover from Ukraine
Despite these setbacks, Russia is not standing still. It is actively working to regenerate its military power through increased recruitment, expanded weapons production, and modernization of its nuclear and asymmetric capabilities.
However, most analysts agree that Russia will not be in a position to launch a large-scale conventional war against NATO for at least the next five to ten years.
Nevertheless, Russia’s strategic doctrine continues to view NATO as a primary threat. Russian leaders frequently accuse the alliance of encroaching on their sphere of influence and undermining Russian security. While there is no explicit indication that Russia plans to attack NATO, its actions suggest a preference for undermining the alliance through non-military means.
These include cyberattacks, disinformation campaigns, election interference, and support for extremist political movements. Such hybrid tactics allow Russia to challenge NATO without triggering a direct military confrontation.
The West is Not Ready for War
NATO, for its part, is far from ready for a large-scale confrontation of any kind.
Although it has raised the alarm bell many times, NATO’s industrial capacity and military preparedness leave plenty to be desired. Europe’s defense industry has struggled to keep up with Ukraine’s defense needs and has shown deficiencies in many areas.
Smaller countries like the Baltics, where the war is expected to start, are also critically understaffed. With Estonia and Lithuania having less than 30,000 active personnel in their armed forces combined (for reference, the Russians entered Ukraine with around 300,000 troops).
Political factors within NATO also play a crucial role in determining the likelihood of a Russian attack. The unity and cohesion of the alliance are essential for effective deterrence. If internal divisions grow, Moscow may perceive an opportunity to test NATO’s resolve.
The political landscape in the United States is particularly important in this regard. Trump has previously questioned the value of NATO and suggested that the U.S. might not defend allies who do not meet defense spending targets.
Such statements could embolden Russia to take more aggressive actions, especially if it believes that NATO’s response would be delayed or divided.
Russia Unlikely to Attack Soon
Expert assessments generally support the view that a direct Russian attack on NATO is unlikely in the near term. Analysts at the RAND Corporation argue that while Russia’s conventional military threat has diminished, its long-term strategy remains focused on undermining Western unity and influence.
They emphasize the importance of sustained deterrence and investment in defense. A report from Chatham House concludes that Russia’s ability to regenerate its military will depend heavily on the outcome of the Ukraine war. If the war ends in a way that Russia can portray as a strategic victory, it may feel emboldened to pursue further territorial ambitions. Conversely, a clear defeat could force Russia to adopt a more defensive posture.
Even if a direct military attack is unlikely, Russia will likely continue its campaign of hybrid warfare. This includes cyberattacks on critical infrastructure, disinformation campaigns aimed at influencing elections and sowing discord, and economic pressure through energy and trade manipulation. These tactics allow Russia to challenge NATO without crossing the threshold that would trigger a military response.
What This Means for China
China’s decision to invade Taiwan is not entirely dependent on whether Russia attacks NATO. The mere threat posed to NATO from the east has already diverted a lot of attention and resources from the U.S. Iran’s attacks against Israel have also diverted more resources into the Middle East and further dwindled the U.S.’ capabilities.
Earlier, sources from the White House reported that the U.S. was halting certain weapon shipments to Ukraine over fears that its own stockpiles were getting low. This is good news for China as it suggests that the U.S. may not be able to fight a protracted war with its current capabilities.
About the Author:
Isaac Seitz, a Defense Columnist, graduated from Patrick Henry College’s Strategic Intelligence and National Security program. He has also studied Russian at Middlebury Language Schools and has worked as an intelligence Analyst in the private sector.
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