The ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine has been overshadowed recently by emerging conflict zones and crises in the Middle East and the South Caucasus. However, these developments are not isolated from one another. Across the Eurasian landmass and even within the Africa-Eurasia nexus, the geopolitical chessboard has been reshuffled, leading to significant shifts in power balances. Within this context, the Russia-Ukraine war encapsulates the underlying codes of the evolving power dynamics within the international system.
The summer period of the Russia-Ukraine war has emerged as a phase marked by intensified clashes on the ground. While mediation talks continue at the negotiation table, the timing of the third round remains uncertain. It is essential to note that both parties appear more focused on buying time than reaching a consensus, often engaging in mutual recriminations. Notably, Russia has adopted a dual strategy of maintaining its strength both diplomatically and militarily during this period.
Meanwhile, amid regional crises such as the Iran-Israel conflict in the Middle East and the Russia-Azerbaijan tensions in the South Caucasus, Russia is both facing new challenges and identifying new arenas to advance its objectives concerning Ukraine. In this context, the recent phone conversation between U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin presents a telling picture. Following an approximately one-hour discussion, Trump publicly expressed his dissatisfaction with the outcome. This discontent raises important questions: Is it primarily a reflection of the ongoing intensification of hostilities, or does it stem from frustration over the failure to end a conflict, which was promised to be resolved within 24 hours, that has rather persisted since January?
Rivalry over or underground
Regardless of the circumstances, Trump aims to secure a victory on this front; hence, the process on the ground is lasting longer than expected. However, it should not be overlooked that Trump also has his limits. The focus on rare earth elements and mineral resources has become increasingly critical, especially in light of Russia’s recent territorial advances in this area. However, it remains uncertain how much this situation aligns with the interests of the U.S. or President Trump personally.
Firstly, when analyzing Russia’s advances on the ground, it is important to consider not only the above-ground territorial areas but also the focus on subterranean wealth. As is well known, the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, a major facility, is under Russian control. Secondly, Russia holds approximately 20% of Ukraine’s territory, which is strategically important due to its industrial capacity and underground mineral resources. In these same areas, Trump’s demands are also evident. It is well-known that subterranean resources have attracted Trump’s attention, particularly as he seeks to leverage them as a geopolitical asset against China within the global order, thereby increasing his interest in Ukraine. Moreover, the disputes between Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Trump at the White House – and Trump’s apparent attempts to dismiss Zelenskyy – should not overlook the influence of mineral-related agreements. Following a meeting between Zelenskyy and Trump at the Vatican during the pope’s funeral, Trump reportedly secured his objectives regarding subterranean minerals and elements. However, the question remains: Was this truly a success?
I believe the answer to this question can be best addressed by examining Russia’s recent advances on the ground. Initially, Russian forces captured a lithium deposit in the southeastern region of Zaporizhzhia in early 2022; subsequently, they also gained control over territories in Donetsk, which are significant in terms of lithium resources. In this context, Russia’s focus on eastern Ukrainian territories and its consideration of the Dnipro River as a natural boundary is not surprising.
This situation also presents challenges related to Europe’s energy embargoes on Russia, and in particular, the problems associated with transitioning to alternative, green energy sources. After all, rare earth elements and critical minerals also play a significant role in this field. According to geological studies, Ukraine possesses one of Europe’s largest undiscovered lithium reserves, estimated at approximately 500,000 tons, ranking fifth in Europe. The top four countries are Germany, the Czechia and Russia.
Russia on three fronts
However, what does Russia aim to achieve through the control of these elements and minerals within its territory? Why is Ukraine’s underground wealth so crucial? Before answering these questions, it is necessary to add one more piece of information. According to an analysis by SIPRI (2025), Ukraine does not have proven reserves of rare earth elements. Moreover, the global market for all key minerals considered critical for the green energy transition, such as cobalt, copper, graphite, lithium, nickel and rare earth elements, is less than $500 billion annually. This indicates that Ukraine’s underground resources are not as valuable as predicted by the U.S. or desired by Trump.
However, this should be viewed in the context of geo-extraction dynamics, as control extends not only to underground resources but also to the surface. In this respect, Russia is pursuing a similar approach. Although Russia already possesses significant mineral resources within its territory, controlling Ukraine’s underground wealth would mean economic and geopolitical consolidation of power. These resources are critically important for reducing Russia’s dependencies on Europe and global markets in the energy and technology sectors, thereby providing a competitive advantage. At the same time, seizing resources in Ukraine strengthens Russia’s influence in the region and enhances its position in the geopolitical struggle with the West. Russia is currently advancing on this front in the field.
As of 2024, Russia has already begun taking steps to integrate the underground resources in the territories it has seized. Therefore, it would be accurate to say that the mineral agreement between the U.S. and Ukraine does not include legal claims over the valuable resources that Russia has already taken control of. The Dnipro-Donetsk region, which Russia occupies, accounts for 80% of Ukraine’s proven hydrocarbon reserves and 90% of its natural gas production. Also, the Russian Federation is implementing an official plan to develop its mineral resources strategy by 2050. This strategy aims to utilize underground resources more efficiently, meet domestic and international demands, and ensure sustainable development. Within this framework, the integration of mineral resource complexes from Ukrainian territories, including Donetsk and Luhansk, as well as the Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions, into the Russian economy is a key priority. These areas are rich in coal, iron, manganese, rare metals and various non-metallic minerals used in construction and other industries.
The final development to note is Russia’s capture of the Shevchenko lithium deposit, which signifies the loss of one of Ukraine’s most valuable lithium reserves. Therefore, it is clear that the recent meeting between Trump and Putin was not productive from Trump’s perspective. In light of Russia’s recent advances, it is essential to interpret this situation from Russia’s perspective. Russia is advancing on the ground through war, at the negotiation table through diplomacy and underground through economic means.
