Florida is growing unaffordable. Do politicians notice?

I write a lot about politics. It’s important, but much of it bores me, which makes off-election years great, because you can explore other things. But one story you will hear more about as we move closer to 2026 is how Florida’s affordability crisis will shape upcoming elections.

That shouldn’t surprise anyone. Floridians have complained about higher costs for housing, insurance, utilities and other everyday basics for years. They’ve seen inaction from Tallahassee, obstruction from Washington and tax and regulatory policy massaged over time to favor big business, all the while promising that relief for consumers is around the corner.

But it takes time for public dissent to bubble into action. Voters get the chance to do something about it at the polls only every two years. That’s what makes 2026 an election to watch as a bellwether in Florida politics. Pocketbook issues could bring real substance to the governor’s race and down-ballot elections. They’ll play an outsized role in local elections across Florida for several years, too.

Let’s look first at a big indicator statewide: Florida’s popularity has waned. Although Florida remains one of the top states for in-migration, a record number of people left the state in 2023. An estimated 637,000 people moved to Florida that year from other states, while 511,000 moved out. That amounted to a 50% decrease in net migration from the previous year, the Florida Chamber of Commerce reported in December, and the first major decline in a decade.

More tellingly, Florida’s migratory growth has become more reliant on older transplants, while younger Floridians are leaving. People in their 20s, especially, “are leaving in significant numbers,” the Chamber found, citing factors including the high cost of housing and limited job opportunities for young professionals. “Florida seemingly struggles to retain its graduates,” the Chamber noted, citing a disconnect between our education system and workforce “that could impact the state’s long-term growth and economic stability.”

That shouldn’t be news, either, to anyone paying attention to Florida’s lagging educational performance, the state’s failure to transition to cheaper energy or the Trump administration’s tariff policy.

A state report last month showed that more than 40% of Florida’s elementary school students could not perform grade-level math or reading. This spring, Florida lawmakers killed legislation that would have curbed the profits that utility shareholders rake in, even as experts predict that electricity bills in Florida this summer will outpace inflation and be the highest in a decade. And a new report this month by Florida TaxWatch estimates the Trump administration’s tariffs will add thousands of dollars to the prices of homes and vehicles in Florida and raise weekly grocery bills here by between 10% and 15%.

This economic squeeze and the brain drain among young people are ripe for talking points in Florida’s 2026 gubernatorial race. While Democrats will still have trouble competing for legislative seats, thanks to three decades of Republican gerrymandering and judicial appointments — and their own disorganization and infighting — affordability could become a winning platform. It also gives Republicans a chance to change tack and for independents to flex their political muscle.

Florida’s cost of living will be an issue in local races, too, as candidates for mayor and city and county commissions face greater demands for affordable housing, mass transportation, small business assistance and credits for garbage, sewer and stormwater rates. That, too, shouldn’t surprise anyone in Tampa Bay, where residents have packed local government meetings in recent years pleading for relief. Nobody’s asking for new Taj Mahals downtown, but for smarter spending, better flood controls and a rein on hiring. These calls will only intensify before the next election cycle if Florida suffers another devastating hurricane season this year.

A Tampa Bay Times story the other day captured the political indifference that is quickly building into a genuine electoral threat. For a third year in a row, Floridians say it’s getting harder to afford groceries. Yet the state has refused to join a federal program that provides additional food assistance to the needy during the summer. This is another example of Gov. Ron DeSantis milking yesterday’s talking point, looking to appease anti-Washington ideologues. But we’re leaving $259 million on the table and hurting millions of children in the process.

I don’t know how this sentiment will manifest itself in the 2026 elections. But only a fool wouldn’t realize the dynamics have changed.