“Everything comes from Mexico ‐ avocadoes, cilantro, radishes ‐ a lot of whole foods,” she said. “Something that seems small to billionaires could really affect people.”
If the tariffs go into effect on August 1, consumers forced to pay more for daily groceries will spend less elsewhere in the economy, experts warn. In addition to future price hikes, Trump’s tariff threats will cause Americans to feel more economic uncertainty, according to financial experts.
The tariffs would cause prices to rise in the “global food supply chain,” and the import taxes likely wouldn’t bring manufacturing jobs back to the US, said Scott Clemons, chief investment strategist for Brown Brothers Harriman & Co., a global firm founded in 1818.
Over the past several decades, the US has strengthened its exports of legal, tech, accounting and other services, Clemons said. Despite Trump’s agenda, the balance of global trade favors US service exports and goods imports, he said.
“If these tariffs go into effect and last, we’re going to find out viscerally how much of our food supply is imported,” Clemons said.
If Mexico and the EU negotiate more favorable trade terms with the US in the next couple of weeks, the 30 percent tariff Trump threatened won’t go into effect, according to letters the president posted online.
Caroline Aiello, a co-owner of DeLuca’s on Newbury Street, said Sunday that she felt a little bump in prices when the first tariff scare took place earlier this year. DeLuca’s did not adjust prices at the time, and she said if tariffs do come into effect, there isn’t a set plan in place to offset the cost.
“We’re already competing with huge stores, and we don’t have the buying power that they do,” Aiello said.
At JP’s Streetcar wine shop, about 80 percent of the bottles on shelves are imported from Europe, said owner Mike Dupuy. Prices on all the wine at the shop ‐ domestic and European ‐ will certainly go up if the tariff is imposed, he warned.
After importers pay the 30 percent tariff on European wine, they’ll pass off the increased costs to distributors, many of whom sell both US and international wine, Dupuy explained. The distributors, who sell cases to shops like Streetcar, would likely raise the price of all their products, including wine produced in the US, he said.
Furthermore, American wine makers in California, Oregon and New York rely on equipment ‐ and even wine bottles ‐ imported from Europe, Dupuy said.
“It’s kind of immeasurably bad news,” said Dupuy, who opened his shop 13 years ago with an intent to focus on wines from France, Italy, Germany and Austria.
Jordan Garry, store manager at Tropical Foods in Roxbury, said the store has not experienced any price increases following the Trump administration’s tariff announcement. Garry has seen minor price changes but the store, which specializes in Caribbean and African products and produce, has absorbed some of the cost to stay competitive
“I’m personally more worried about January when they cut the food stamps. You know, that’s gonna be a wake-up call for a lot of people,” Garry said.
Denise Korn, a South End resident who regularly shops at South End Food Emporium, said that she likes to buy her morning newspaper at the store, which serves a diverse community. As a first-generation American, Korn said that Trump’s proposed tariffs will not serve the American people, especially those struggling with food insecurity.
“There are unforeseen consequences to people that are already struggling with putting food on the table,” Korn said.
The tariff threat alone is a harsh symptom of the political and economic unpredictability Trump wields, said Clemons, the chief investment strategist. The same uncertainty that will cause moms to stress about bills will also prevent business owners from investing in new capital, he said.
“It makes it very difficult to plan,” Clemons said. “What I worry about is that if you aggregate all of those spending decisions, or more precisely, non-spending decisions, you wind up with a recipe for an economic slowdown.”
Santiago said her two-income household will probably be able to handle grocery price increases with only a bit of economic discomfort. She already uses services like Misfits Markets, paying less for oddly shaped fruits.
Her corner of JP is vulnerable to a more unique economic slowdown ‐ one where neighborly generosity is taxed at a higher rate, she said.
When Santiago had the flu in February, Pimentel Market cashier Juan Campos gave her a shot of his herbal brew made with raw vegetables. He also recently shared the drink with cooks at a nearby restaurant, who all came down with the same illness.
“I’m just thinking of how this could influence someone who does something out of the kindness of their heart,” she said.
Claire Thornton can be reached at claire.thornton@globe.com. Follow Claire on X @claire_thornto.