By Dow Jones Newswires Staff

Below are the most important global events likely to affect FX and bond markets in the week starting July 14.

Investors will focus on U.S. inflation data for June as they look to judge whether the Federal Reserve is likely to cut interest rates any time soon.

Inflation data are also due from Canada, the eurozone, the U.K. and Japan, while a slew of data releases from China will attract close attention.

Investors will continue to await news on any U.S. tariff deals with individual countries ahead of the new deadline of August 1 for when reciprocal tariffs will take effect.

U.S.

U.S. inflation data for June are released on Tuesday and will be scrutinized for any signs of whether tariffs are already pushing up prices and what this will mean for U.S interest rates.

“We expect the Federal Reserve will have to wait another month for properly elevated inflation readings, but the year-on-year readings will start to rise,” ABN Amro analysts said in a note.

Economists at HSBC said higher tariffs will likely put upward pressure on core goods prices over the coming months but housing services inflation appears to be decelerating. Any cooling in the labor market through slower hiring demand could also weigh on inflation.

A softer-than-expected reading, combined with weaker economic activity data, could spark speculation of the Fed cutting interest rates as early as this month. A stronger reading, however, could mean a rate cut is unlikely until later in the year.

U.S. money markets currently price in a less than 7% chance of a 25 basis-point rate cut on July 30 and a 71% chance of a reduction in September, LSEG data show. Rate cuts are fully priced in for October and December.

June producer price inflation is due Wednesday and will give a signal on pipeline inflationary pressures.

Data on economic activity include June industrial production on Wednesday and June retail sales data on Wednesday. The University of Michigan’s July preliminary consumer survey on Friday will give a more up-to-date snapshot of consumer sentiment.

Other data include weekly jobless claims Thursday and June housing starts Friday.

Canada

Canadian inflation data for June are due on Tuesday.

These figures will attract close attention given concerns about the impact of tariffs on Canada’s economy and speculation about whether the Bank of Canada will again need to provide the economy with a boost by reducing interest rates further.

Recent robust Canadian jobs data means a rate cut in the near term looks unlikely. Money markets price in just a 16% chance of a 25 basis-point rate cut on July 30. A rate reduction is almost fully priced in for December.

Canadian housing starts data for June are also released Tuesday.

Eurozone

The final estimate of eurozone inflation for June is due on Thursday. Provisional data showed annual inflation crept up to the European Central Bank’s target of 2.0% last month.

Ahead of that, Spanish inflation data for June is scheduled for Tuesday, while Italy’s final CPI figure comes on Wednesday.

Germany’s ZEW economic sentiment indicator for July is due for release on Tuesday, followed by industrial production data for the eurozone for May.

“The big question is whether the tariff-pause has caused another round of frontloading or whether production and exports data have normalised or even reversed on the back of the higher tariff environment compared to pre-April 2 levels,” ING economists said in a note.

Germany will launch a new, September 2027-dated treasury note, or Schatz, on Tuesday and it will tap 2048- and 2056-dated Bunds on Wednesday. Other issuers are Spain and France on Thursday.

U.K.

U.K. inflation data for June are due on Wednesday.

These figures will attract close attention given the combined concerns about inflation being high but growth weak, and what that means for how quickly the Bank of England is likely to cut interest rates. Annual CPI inflation has risen in recent months and last stood at 3.4% in May, well above the Bank of England’s 2.0% target.

Investec expects the rate to stay at 3.4% in June but to ease back later in the year due to a weakening labor market and a sluggish economy.

Jobs data on Thursday could give evidence of weak employment growth, while wage growth could come down, especially as recent data showed the economy contracted again by 0.1% in May. This would add to expectations that the Bank of England could cut interest rates again in August. U.K. money markets price a 78% chance of a 25 basis-point rate reduction in August.

The U.K. is due to sell U.K government bonds, or gilts, maturing in March 2030 on Thursday.

Sweden

Sweden releases inflation data for June on Monday.

China

It is a pivotal week for China watchers, with second-quarter GDP data set to shape expectations on whether the country can achieve its 5% full-year growth target.

The data cycle kicks off with June trade figures due Monday, which are expected to show weaker-but still resilient-exports, supported by a temporary truce that eased tensions between China and the U.S.

While U.S. tariffs in the second quarter caused some trade disruptions, exports have held up thanks to trade restructuring, according to HSBC economists.

A Wall Street Journal poll forecasts export growth of 4.0% in June, down from 4.8% in May. Imports are expected to have contracted by 0.5%, reflecting still-weak domestic demand.

Buoyed by export strength, gross domestic product data due Tuesday is expected to show a relatively robust pace of growth.

Consumption has continued to recover, helped by government consumer goods trade-in policies, HSBC said. Additional support measures targeting livelihoods could also bolster demand.

The WSJ poll pegs China’s second-quarter GDP growth at 5.2%, down slightly from 5.4% in the first quarter.

Also on Tuesday, key June indicators will offer deeper insights into household spending and industrial activity. The WSJ poll predicts that retail sales on-year growth slowed to 5.6% in June from May’s 6.4%.

Industrial output is expected to have risen 5.6%, slightly down from 5.8%, while fixed asset investment likely grew 3.6% in the first half-nearly flat compared to the 3.7% pace in January-May.

A fresh batch of property data due Tuesday will also draw attention amid expectations for more stimulus to support the beleaguered sector.

The housing price release will provide an update on whether the steeper downturns seen in the last two months continued or were just a blip, economists at ING said. If there are more big declines, that could trigger another round of real-estate stimulus, they said.

Japan

Government data due Friday is expected to show that inflation continues to rise. Core consumer prices, excluding fresh food, are forecast to have increased 3.4% in June from a year earlier, according to a Quick poll. That compares with a 3.7% rise in May.

Despite strong inflation, uncertainty over trade negotiations with the U.S. means the Bank of Japan is unlikely to rush into an interest-rate hike.

Trade data due Thursday may show a further slowdown in exports in June, after a 1.7% fall in May from a year earlier.

Machinery orders for May are also set to be released Monday.

On Friday, the BOJ is scheduled to conduct outright purchases in four sectors of the Japanese government bond market. These include sovereign notes with maturities of more than one year and up to three years, and with maturities more than 10 years and up to 25 years. Planned purchases could provide some support to the bond market.

The Ministry of Finance is set to auction around 300 billion yen of five-year climate transition bonds on Tuesday. These securities, designed to fund Japan’s shift toward a decarbonized economy, may attract interest from investors focused on sustainability themes.

Australia/New Zealand

Following a week of central bank meetings and unexpected policy decisions, the calendar in Australia and New Zealand will be quieter.

Still, Australian employment data due Thursday will be critical for traders, most of which remain confident that the Reserve Bank of Australia will cut interest rates in August.

The labor market has remained resilient over the past year, though forward-looking indicators suggest a potential slowdown in hiring.

If the unemployment rate stays near its current 50-year low of around 4.0% and job growth picks up again, markets may begin to question the RBA’s capability to deliver a third rate cut in August.

However, traders are expected to hold off on any major repricing until the release of second-quarter inflation data at the end of the month.

RBA Governor Michele Bullock has said some inflation components remain concerning and that she wants more clarity before proceeding with further rate cuts.

Indonesia

Bank Indonesia will announce its July policy decision on Wednesday afternoon.

Market consensus broadly expects a 25 basis-point rate cut, supported by the rupiah’s relative stability, according to Barclays economists. However, the decision remains finely balanced, with continued uncertainty over U.S. trade policy potentially prompting the central bank to stay on hold.

ING economists, meanwhile, expect BI to leave its policy rate unchanged at 5.5% this month, citing lingering tariff concerns as a reason for caution. While the macro environment is conducive to easing, policymakers may opt to wait, ING said.

Singapore

Singapore will release advance estimates for second-quarter gross domestic product on Monday.

The figures are likely to show that the economy grew 3.6% on year in the quarter, according to economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal. That would be slower than the first quarter’s 3.9% growth.

A moderate slowdown would be consistent with Singapore’s economy-wide PMI reading, ANZ Research economists wrote in a note. Services-related activity is expected to have slowed, particularly in retail and hospitality, they said.

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07-13-25 2014ET